When Winning Is Bad

If the entire season were determined by the first three and the last three games alone, the 49ers would be among the league's elites. (Actually, they'd have a .600 winning pct. over the last three seasons.) For whatever reason, under Mike Nolan the team had a tendency to start strong out of the gate, shit the bed weeks 4-12, then come out of no where to beat a playoff contender as the season winded down.

The problem with this pattern is the false sense of hope (and hype) it creates going into the following season. "Sure, Nolan/Smith/the defense/the receiving corps had a rough go last year," we fans would say,"but things are looking up." In reality, things weren't looking up. The following season would come and the 49ers would continue to eek out victories against bad teams and get utterly destroyed by good teams when it mattered. So the optimism created by the previous year's strong finish was never really warranted.

Like a recurring nightmare, it's happening again. The media is lobbying for Young Jedi to anoint Mike Singletary the head coach for 2009. In perfect harmony, they're lobbying for Singletary to anoint Shaun Hill the starting quarterback for 2009. This is logical. The team appears it will finish the 2008 season on the upswing and most of the recent success can and should be attributed to Singletary and Hill. With a little more cohesion on the o-line and some much needed consistency in the offensive coordinator's office they'll head into 2009 primed for a winning record. But I can't help but ask, is this a mirage?

I mean, I'm happy for the victories and all. And I sincerely hope the 9ers actually are a better team than they were in 2007. But the fact is, they're substantially the same team that they were in 2007. Sure, the receivers are different, the o-line's been reshuffled, and Martz is calling the plays. But other than that, they're pretty much the same old 9ers. Justin Smith is good, but so was Bryant Young. Some might say Shaun Hill is a difference-maker, but at least some are slow to hop on his wagon.

It appears the 49ers still are not sold on Shaunhill [intentionally misspelled], still believe he’s OK, but over the long haul is not a winning quarterback — at least not a big winner — and can’t take them where they need to go. It seems clear no one in that quiet building in Santa Clara is about to say Shaunhill is next season’s starter, or even that next season’s starter currently works in the building.

Let me be the first to say, that may be an accurate assessment. It worries me that most of the ink spilled over the last few days has been dispelling this logic. Even the Lowell Cohn article the above-quoted material comes from goes on to say "[Hill] is the genuine article — has presence, the knack, the feel — whatever you want to call it." Maybe we could wait until the man gets that 6th NFL start under his belt before claiming he is the "genuine article."

As the last three seasons have taught me as a fan, you can't put all your eggs in one basket, particularly when that basket didn't do shit until it was already eliminated from the playoffs.



Sorry.

My favorite team is the 49ers

My second favorite team is whoever is playing against the Cowboys.

Here are some things to watch in this week's game, mostly based on Football Outsiders' most recent numbers.

To start with, Dallas's defense has some holes that play to the 9ers' strengths. The 9ers' O-line ranks 5th in run blocking and should be able to open lanes against Dallas's 22nd-ranked run defense. Last week, Dallas's run defense showed some backbone, holding the league's top rusher to 68 yards. In their previous outing, the same defense allowed the Giants' 200 rushing yards and 12 rushing first downs. What the Giants did and the 'Skins failed to do was run up the gut on big Jay Ratliff. He's a 3-4 DT with 30 tackles and 6 sacks. That's not supposed to happen. Ratliff vs. Heitmann/Baas/Wragge/Rachal is the match-up to watch in this game.

In the air, Dallas's defense ranks 20th in stopping passes to TEs and 19th in stopping passes to RBs. The way the 9ers' O-line has been pass blocking since Shaun Hill stepped in, I'm confident the team can give Hill time to get the ball out to his receivers. If not, the TE and RB outlets should be available. When faced with a stout defense, Hill always seems to find his RB underneath. That's at least part of the reason Gore is second only to Reggie Bush in receiving yards by a RB. Look for Gore and Robinson to make a difference with their hands this week. That sounds kind of gross.

On defense, the 9ers have to play smart. On Sunday night, the Cowboys exploited the Skins' tendency to over-pursue by running misdirections every series, even on passing routes. The 9ers have that same over-pursuit weakness. They were run ragged earlier in the year by the Pats and the Eagles, who played that same scheme.

Against the pass, the 9ers have been the 6th best team at stopping TEs. Subtract the game in Seattle where John Carlson went gonzo and the defense is in the top 3 vs. the TE. That's big against Romo, who's completed more passes to Jason Witten than any other target. Speaking of Romo's other target, seen TO's numbers recently? He ranks 75th in the league in DYAR. That's worse that Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Jason Hill, and Josh Morgan. Don't expect the 9ers to get any pressure on Romo. The 9ers' can't sack groceries.

There is no bigger discrepancy between the 9ers and the Cowboys than that on special teams. The 49ers rank 1st in the league in special teams DVOA going into week 12 and are strong in every area. The Cowboys rank 30th and are particularly weak in their kick off and punt coverage. That makes Allen Rossum the man to watch on special teams.

You're making me blush

Headlines read:

"Cowboys Get Their Leader Back, Return to Playoff Race"
"Romo Has Cowboys Singing Confident Tune"
"Tony Romo Will Be in MVP Mix if Cowboys Make Playoffs"
"Tony Romo's a Hero"

Are you kidding me? A hero? I'm so tired of the media drinking from Jerry Jones's well of Tony Romo Kool Aid. In spite of the headlines, Romo was the among the league's worst quarterbacks last week.

Statistical evidence be damned! Somehow, "Romo's presence, [Peter King is convinced], helped the Dallas defense in Washington." That's right, Tony Romo improved the Cowboys' defense just by being present. "I'll be seeing Romo later tonight," King continued, "good thing I loaded up on Sproingo."



Actually, I'm happy about all the Romo boners in the media. For one thing, it gives 49ers fans another reason to hate the Cowboys. More importantly, it means the Cowboys are thinking playoffs. In other words, they're looking past the 9ers.

Impeccable timing

I don't really have much to say about Mike Singletary taking over for Mike Nolan. That's because I don't really anticipate the change having much of an effect. Few do. Sure, Singletary might inspire the team a little more on gamedays, perhaps he'll be a little more sensible with his red hankey, but he's already said he won't shake up the org chart or the roster. How much of a difference can he really make?

But I will say this. The timing of the change was perfect. This is because it is so important for Singletary to get things started on a positive note. Making the change now gives him the best chance of notching a few wins. In fact, there is no better week than this one.

The difficulty of the 9ers' schedule reached its crescendo last week against the Giants in New Jersey. To this point in the season, the team has had the 10th most difficult schedule in the leage according to the Football Outsiders formula, which is based on average DVOA of opponents played. Going farward, they have the 11th easiest schedule.

The FO formula estimates the 9ers will win about 3 more games (this is not as bad as it sounds - the Titans have the highest number of estimated wins in the league with just over 5). In all likelihood, the team would have won these games regardless of which Mike was coaching. But if a change has to be made, now is the time to make it because if the team is going to win any games this season, they're going to win them now.

Life on Martz: Part 2

Trent Dilfer's brain is still fully functional. Dilfer made an appearance on KNBR's Murph & Mac show this morning and killed it. This was the most insightful commentary on the relationship between the Mike Martz offense and the other areas's of the team that I've heard yet.

Will play for burritos

McNolan has regularly stated that the 49ers are a team that will "build through the draft" and not through free agency. Yet, the team has been among the most active free agent buyers in the league over the last three seasons. This last offseason has proven the most fruitful free agency period for the team. Here's a look at just how fruity their FA acquisitions have been so far this season:

• Isaac Bruce: Leads the team in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and yards per catch. Currently 8th in the league in receiving DVOA. More importantly, by singing Bruce the 9ers won't have to play against him this season. Over the last five seasons, Bruce has averaged 75 yards/game against the 9ers, compared to 60 yards/game against the rest of the league over that same span.
• DeShaun Foster: He hasn't done anything spectular thus far, but that's a good thing. Foster's role on the team is that of insurance policy for Frank Gore. In my opinion, he's a better insurance policy than was Maurice Hicks. Hicks, by the way, has returned four kicks and hasn't touched the ball on offense in Minnesota.
• Bryant Johnson: Johnson has been underwhelming thus far, but has the potential to bust a big game. It may be his turn this week against New England, whose pass defense DVOA ranks 24th in the league against #2 receivers and 32nd in the league against 3rd and 4th receivers. Johnson is also the only receiver O'Sullivan has connected with in a designed red-zone route.
• J.T. O'Sullivan: If you measure a free agent signing by production per dollar spent, O'Sullivan was has to be one of the best free agent pick ups in years.
• Allen Rossum: Based on what we saw in the preseason, it's fair to assume that Rossum will break a return for a touchdown at some point this year. And something tells me the team wouldn't run a reverse on 4th and goal to Maurice Hicks.
• Barry Simms: I was shocked, SHOCKED when Jonas Jennings was injured. In replacing Jennings, Simms has been far from perfect. He whiffed a few blocks last week and may have cost the team points. But he's looked good in run blocking. Maybe Simms is just a whiter version of Kwame Harris, but there's one key difference between the two players: 49ers fans don't loathe Simms.
• Justin Smith: When the 9ers signed Smith in the offseason, skeptics repeatedly pointed to the fact that his sack numbers were never particularly high. But he's already matched his sack total from last year and he's 3rd on the team in tackles.
• Takeo Spikes: Spikes was a bit rusty when he arrived in the offseason. In week one, Spikes couldn't catch a kickoff that floated into his arms like a feather. Last week, he pulled down a low-flying Cruise missile. Now that he has definitely beat out Jeff Ulbrichshithouse for the starting Ted linebacker spot, he's likely to start contributung more and more each week.

Of the eight players named above, only Foster is not a starter. (While Rossum is a specialist, I include him as a starter as I would a punter or place kicker.) Using Sando's NFC West Roided-Out Roster for week five, I can tell you that no team in the division has this many starters from the '08 free agency crop. For this post's empty promise, I pledge to take a look around the league at other teams that made a splash in free agency last offseason to see if anyone has added as many starters to the lineup as the 9ers. I suspect the only teams that will be remotely colse are the Dolphins and Falcons -- not exactly good company.

There are good things and bad things about this many free agents cracking the starting lineup. The good thing is that most of these players are quality players, some are Pro Bowlers (non-PBA), who came to the 9ers because they wanted to play here. There's the right mix of a willingness to pay big contracts and a chance at success. There was a time when the team was signing vagrants off the streets of San Francisco to fill the holes in their remarkably shitty team. That's where the 'Fins and Falcons are now and the 9ers are differently situated.

The bad thing is free agents can corrode a roster. They are generally old, expensive, and transiet. Sure, Alex Smith costs more than O'Sullivan, but that's the exception to the rule. Guys like Bruce, Foster and Spikes are more common. They're in their 30s, earn about $2M/year, and may leave as soon as their contract runs out. That's not helping anyone beyond this season. But maybe that's all the management is thinking about.

Life on Martz: Part 1

There have been rumblings that the defense isn't playing up to snuff so far this year. Looking at the scores against the Cardinals and the Seahawks, that would appear true. But in watching the first two games, I've been impressed with the defense. They've haven't been gashed for big plays, save one long pass to Steve Breaston in week 1 and the TD run by Julius Jones on a safety blitz in week 2. In fact, the 49ers defense is currently in the top 10 in the league in yards allowed/play and 20 + yard plays allowed. Plus they've got sacks and turnovers. What more could you ask? So if they've been so good at limiting opposing offenses, why are they allowing so many points?

The answer, like all things this year, has something to do with Mike Martz. Specifically, the Martzian offense is not giving the defense much help in terms of field position. Field positions is a simple metric, but the implications are more complex. If a defense has the offense pinned back against their own goal line, the defense can be more aggressive with blitzes, stunts, and coverages. Conversely, when the offense has the defense near their own endzone, the defense has to play more conservatively and can't afford exotic and risky blitzes. Welcome to life on Martz.



To illustrate how the defense has been given a shitty lot the last few weeks, I'm using two field positions stats. First, I looked at how many the points the defense has given up when the opponents' offense starts with a turnover-induced short field. Second, special teams has been putting the defense in terrible situations with poor coverage on punts, so I looked at the drive charts to see where the other teams are starting their drives after the offense punts.

When looking at these numbers, keep two things in mind. First, the average starting field position for most teams over the course of a season is between their own 25- and their own 30-yard line. Second, the team that averages a better starting field position than their opponent almost always wins. Pat Kirwan ran a nice story documenting this last year and the guy at Advanced NFL Stats (a nice site) gave the argument a more mathy support.

First, turnovers. The Martz offense has turned the ball over six times in two weeks. Here's the opponents' average starting field position after turnovers and how the defense has fared in response.

Opponents' avg. starting field position after turnovers: 49ers' 26-yard line
Total points allowed by the defense after 6 turnovers: 10 ... total!

That's pretty impressive if you ask me. Yes, the stats are skewed because the Seahawks recovered a fumble and scored without ever letting the defense take the field, but even subtracting that turnover from the calculation the defense has still responded well to turnovers.

As for the punting unit, the comparison is simple because there have been just as many punts (six) as turnovers. Here are the stats.

Opponents' avg. starting field position after punts: Own 44-yard line
Total points allowed by the defense after 6 punts: 23

There are two things that lead to this abnormal starting field position the punting unit is allowing. First is the punting unit itself. Andy Lee's 45-yard average is good for 13th in the league. That's not terrible. It's the coverage that's killing the team. In spite of Lee's decent average punt, the punting unit is 30th in the league in net avg. That means they are allowing big returns. And from who? Steve Breaston and Michael Bumpus? WTF? The other thing that leads to this field position is the place on the field from which the team is punting. This is on Martz. If the offense is punting from deep in its own territory, the aren't helping the defense. I should mention here that 6 punts ties the offense for 3rd fewest punts in the league. Thank god.

These numbers are nothing to sneeze at - field position is important. Consider the average starting field position the offense is giving the opponents. Excluding kickoffs, the opponents' average starting field position is the 49ers' 41-yard line. That's just awful. Against the Cardinals, the 49ers gave up starting field position of the 49ers' 47-yard line INCLUDING KICKOFFS! There's no way you can win a game when the opponent starts in your territory more than they start in their own.

I have a deep fear that one of the side effects of the Martzian offense is a tendency to give up the ball deep in your own territory. If that's the case, look for the defense's numbers to sag this year even though they are playing well. As well as can be expected, anyway, for a defense with its back pinned against the wall. Hopefully, the offense can pick up the slack and keep the defense off the ropes. If not, every week is going to be a shootout.

Play the kid

An e-mail exchange with 49ers super-genius Ofercofer brought about the following comment:

[...] the defense created good pressure for a half but has to create turnovers one way or another. It's time to gamble on Goldson at free safety.

He's right in two respects. First, he's right that Goldson is a gamble. For one thing, he's only been in the big leagues for one year. According to Barrows, Nolan trusts Mark Roman and is not likely to hand the reigns of the defense to an unestablished player. Apparently, while Roman has 5 interceptions in 8 years and had 0 interceptions last year, he is wise in ways undetectable to the common fan.

Along these same lines, Goldson may leave the defense susceptible to the big play. In the Cardinals game last week, Steve Breaston beat Goldson over the top for a 40-yard play to the 1-yard line that lead to the Cardinals' first touchdown.

In spite of that fact, Ofercofer is also right that now is the time to get Goldson into the lineup. In '07, the 9ers gave up 51 pass plays for more than 20 yards. That was good for fourth worst in the NFL. They can't do much worse with Goldson in the lineup, can they?

Goldson's upside, of course, is his potential to be the ball hawk Roman is not. Maiocco juxtaposed the two in the early pre-season. Essentially, his comparison boils down to this,

[Roman] is a solid all-around player [while Goldson] seems to have a flair for being in the middle of the action.

Another argument that Goldson is ready now is his pedigree. By and large, Pac-10 defensive backs arrive in the league NFL-ready. Here's a list of some other Pac-10 DBs who have made it big, along with the year in their career they cracked the starting lineup:

• Nnamdi Awesom-O 4000 (2)
• O.J. Atogwe (2)
• Antoine Cason (Rookie)
• Erik Coleman (Rookie)
• Michael Johnson (2)
• Ricky Manning (2)
• Deltha O'Neal (2)
• Jarrad Page (2)
• Troy Polamalu (2)
• Marcus Trufant (Rookie)

Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of Pac-10 defensive backs who never see a snap. I put together this list to show that many Pac-10 defensive backs who do make it into their team's starting lineup are ready to do so early in their pro careers. I assume that this has something to do with the Pac-10's tendency to emphasize pro-style offenses and disciplined passing games. That's my best guess.

As this applies to Goldson, consider the offenses he faced in college. He saw USC with Leinart, Cal with Aaron Rodgers, Stanford with Trent Edwards, Oregon State with Derek Anderson, Oregon with Kellen Clemens and Dennis Dixon, and the list goes on. Having seen these offenses before arriving to the NFL, it's no wonder he does so well on the practice field. Now's the time to let him take that onto the game field.

The new divide

After reading Matt Barrows' most recent Q&A, something became painfully obvious - 49ers fans are splitting in a bad way.

The readers' questions in the Q&A made statements like "I think maybe Scot [McCloughan] is also over-rated," followed by "It looks like McCloughan has built a team with good depth." A later question regarding Mike Nolan's infamous comments to Peter King stated "Nolan was stating the obvious, not taking a jab at Smith," followed by "Nolan has taken another shot/swipe at Alex Smith."

These were just a sample of the questions driving a wedge in the fan base. In reality, there are many more. Should the team move to Santa Clara? Should Alex Smith have been given more of an opportunity to win the starting job this season? Is Nolan too reluctant to give a starting job to a young player not drafted in the 1st round (i.e. Dashon Goldson, Captain Morgan, etc.)? These points are debated to no end in the comments sections of the various 9ers blogs (a problem we don't have in Nineragua). Obviously, we can't agree on everything, but it seems we're getting to a point where we can't agree on anything.

There are numerous ways to draw the line between the two camps in this little row, but the most obvious point of distinction relates to Nolan. On one side are the fans who believe Nolan has done a good job rebuilding the team and should be given the opportunity to finish what he's started. These are the guys who wore suits to the opener last year and send hate mail to Tim Kawakami. On the other side are those who feel Nolan should have already been hatcheted, or at the very least should be on a short chain this season.

This is nothing new. The aforementioned Kawakami's been talking about 49ers fans in these terms for months, if not years (I see this starting as far back as the '06 season). I always figured Kawakami had beef with Nolan. I still think he does. But the reality has set in that Kawakami is correct - we are a divided people.

The only thing that can unify us is a lopsided record. Either a lot of wins or a lot of losses and we'll all be back on the same page.

The record on O'Sullivan

With so much said lately about the relationship between J.T. O'Sullivan on the one hand and Nolan and Martz on the other, I thought I'd dig around and find exactly what has been said. Here are the quotes on un-dead J.T. from the two key decision-makers.

Nolan

[P]robably the biggest impression that I got out of the quarterback position is that it is probably going to be a three-man race rather than just two. I think J.T. O'Sullivan is going to get in the thick of it. - 5/5/2008

I've been impressed with J.T. He's probably more like Shaun than he is Alex. His familiarity with the offense is better. I like his demeanor, his ability to get things done. - 5/5/2008

Question: What about the quarterback situation? We're talking about Alex Smith and [...] Hill has a decent chance of being the starter here.
Answer: Yes he does, and J.T. O'Sullivan will be able to compete for the job as well. - 5/22/2008 (audio link)

J.T. O’Sullivan has got a good arm. But as we all know, it’s about scoring points, moving the ball down the field. So however you get that done, that’s what’s most important. - 6/2/2008

I'm not going to put the quarterbacks or coaching staff in a position where there's a timetable [...]. When we feel it's been determined by their performances, we'll make that decision. - 7/21/2008

Question: So is O'Sullivan back in the starting mix?
Answer: No, he's been in it all along [...]. As I said in the spring and I'll continue to say it, it is a battle between three guys. - 7/31/2008

The determining factor was, like I said, he's probably got the better command between the three [quarterbacks] right now. He played with consistency and we moved the ball well as a unit. We scored points, we did the things that I think our really important playing that position. - 8/22/2008

Martz

[O’Sullivan] is capable of being a starter in this league. He’s not a reliever, if you will. He’s not a backup. He’ll take full advantage of [the competition]. He’s a very fierce competitor. - 3/11/2008

I was looking for a guy who could make throws under duress and hard circumstances. It was obvious to me that he was very accurate and very intelligent. - 3/13/2008

He flicks the ball and hits the guy on a dead run. He has uncanny accuracy. He sees things. He's mobile. He's tough. He's all of those things. - 5/5/2008

Whoever we go with is the quarterback we feel we have to best chance to win with, period. - 8/12/2008

If nothing else, their comments have been consistent. There was a quarterback competition, the guy who showed he could put up points and win games would win the job, JTO showed he could do that. Despite the consistency of the message, the media has been using the episode to fabricate stories about wedges between factions of the team's management and secret plans to usurp Nolan's job. Perhaps all this speculation was unnecessary. Perhaps, the coaching staff has been on the same page all along.

Note: In fairness, I have to admit I was dead wrong when I discounted JTO's chances of starting the season opener. For an amazingly inaccurate prediction, click here.