Daily pre-season prediction

Daily pre-season prediction #3: Ashley Lelie gets cut

Injured, again. I'm not inclined to recycle jokes, but Mike Nolan is about as tolerant of injuries as Lou Dobbs is of immigrants. Making matters worse for Lelie, this training camp has some stiff competition at the receiver position. If Lelie misses time this pre-season with another injury, he's done.

As Mike Sando, the journalist who never sleeps, reports, the 49ers under Nolan have kept either six or seven receivers. Believe it or not, the Rams under Martz only kept five. With 1) Bruce, 2) Johnson, 3) Battle, 4) Hill, and 5) Morgan, that leaves one roster spot remaining AT MOST. In a Niners Nation poll last May, readers had Lilie as the 4th receiver. If that poll were conducted again today, I suspect the fans would send Lelie packing.

Maiocco's post from this morning

Anyone who reads 49ers blogs reads Matt Maiocco's Instant 49ers. In fact, most readers probably start there. In spite of the fact that anyone reading this post has already read Maiocco's post from this morning, I just want to encourage you to read it again. Read it a couple times. It's that good.

My only contribution is this. It's been suggested that Smith will start one of the first two pre-season games and Hill will start the other. If that happens, then the quarterback who doesn't start each of those games will come in some time around the second quarter. When the second string quarterback comes in, he'll be playing against the other team's second string defense. Therefore, he will probably come away looking better than the quarterback who started the game.

But there's more, and this part's important. If Smith starts the first pre-season game against the Raiders, and I think he will, he'll go against a top-tier pass defense with Nnamdi Awsom-O 4000 (audio in link) and DeAngelo Hall. Those guys are bad asses. It's not going to be easy for any quarterback to look good against that defense. The Raiders' second stingers, Stanford Routt and John Bowie, aren't bad, but they're beatable. Hill will probably look dominant against these guys, causing the media and the fans to go monkeyshit crazy. Smith can't afford to let this happen. For the sake of his own confidence and the team's confidence in him, Smith needs to come out strong against the Raiders.

So here's my corollary to the scenario Maiocco posted this morning: IF Smith looks weak against the Raiders, and I think he probably will, and IF Hill comes in and looks great, and again, I think he probably will, then the tone will be set. The only way we don't have a quarterback controversy going into the season is if Smith comes out hot and Hill does not.

Daily pre-season prediction

Daily pre-season prediction #2: Expect more "Big Nickel"

This deserves a little explanation. First, some background on the Big Nickel. The standard Nickel defense modifies a 4-3 to adjust for passing situations in three ways. The first modification is use of five defensive backs. The fifth back is usually a cornerback who has enough size to challenge a running play. Second, the package uses two linebackers, the middle backer and the strongside backer from the 4-3. The third modification is to the down lineman. The formation uses more pass rushing personnel on the line than would the 4-3. Think Justin Tuck playing defensive tackle. Kevin Lynch discussed the formation in several posts on the Niner Insider.

The 9ers tried a standard Nickel in '06 and had some success. In '07, they modified the standard Nickel by using four big down lineman (BY, Franklin, Sopoaga, and Douglas) and the two middle linebackers from the base 3-4, Willis and Derek Smith. Theoretically, this improved on the standard Nickel by adding size to the line and a bigger backer to stop the run. In short, it was a big Nickel. Seattle destroyed it. Later in the season, they modified the Big Nickel in two ways. First, they replaced one of the down lineman with an outside backer (Parys Haralson) who lined up in a 3-point stance. They also replaced Smith with Jeff Ulbrichshithouse. This was Big Nickel 2.0 and it was faster and more successful.

Now consider the team's offseason moves. Their biggest free agent acquisition was a big d-end who doesn't fit a traditional 3-4. They drafted another lineman who's too small to play a traditional 3-4 tackle and a corner with size and tackling ability, also known as a nickel back. They let Derek Smith go and haven't done much to replace him. These moves fit the Big Nickel perfectly.

Everyone knows the NFL is moving toward a more spread offense. More accurately, everyone wants to look like the Patriots did last year. (Football Outsiders recently pointed out that there is no movement toward a spread offense, just more use of the shotgun with 3+ receiver sets, but whatever.) The logical reaction is a defense that can shut down a high-octane passing offense without sacrificing the ability to stop the run. I foresee a lot more use of the Nickel defense all over the league this year. The 9ers' Big Nickel is nice upgrade to that model and should get a lot of use this year.

Daily pre-season prediction

Prediction #1: Rachal unseats Baas in the pre-season

First he was at Right Guard, then he was at Right Tackle, now he's apparently back at Right Guard. Now that the shuffling seems to be over and done with, I see Rachal settling in at the Guard spot and not letting go. As Maiocco the Magnificent hinted in his post on the day the team signed Chilo Rachal, he's a contender for the starting job already. Barrows goes a step further, saying the competition at this point is between Rachal and Tony Wragge.

Why do I think Rachal takes the spot? Two reasons. First, Baas is injured. McNolan is about as sympathetic to injured players as Lou Dobbs is to immigrants. And while reports indicate Baas is recovering smoothly, his is not a minor injury. This injury ended Patrick Kearney's '06 season and Bertrand Berry's '07 season. Don't expect Baas to be game-ready until the pre-season is over.

Second, Rachal has a mean streak that Baas lacks. This, from Maiocco's mini-update on OTAs:

There was a report on Sirius NFL Radio that 49ers rookie guard Chilo Rachal tussled with outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain during Friday's practice, according to several people who heard the show. Rachal reportdely threw Banta-Cain around like a rag doll.

I just can't see that happening with Baas - he's too low key.

So there you have it, daily prediction #1. Expect daily pre-season prediction #2 in a couple weeks.

Quaterbacking debate

So by now, everyone has seen Nolan's post-war plan for selecting a Quarterback. Essentially, he's saying that the deadline for the decision is the third pre-season game. This goes against earlier statements indicating the team wants to go into training camp with a starter. Barrows gave that statement a little flack this morning, and reasonably so. But is there genius lurking behind the delay?

Here's why Nolan's doing the right thing in waiting to name a starter. As anyone who's seen these two quarterbacks play can tell you, Alex Smith looks good on paper and in practice; Shaun Hill doesn't. Hill looks good in games; Smith doesn't (usually). If the decision to name a starter were made based solely on OTAs and training camp, the nod would obviously go to Smith. In six years in the NFL, Hill never distinguished himself in practice. In fact, he was destined for a career as a 3rd stringer until he had the opportunity to start last year. Only after those performances was he in the running for the permanent starting job. So the only way the team can truly evaluate Smith v. Hill is by considering game situations. According to Maiocco,

Nolan intimated that Smith and Hill will start one game apiece before the third practice game.

If the team is actually giving Hill a shot to start, that's the only reasonable thing to do.

The heartbreaking work of a really smart blogger

I was devastated when I read yesterday that the 49ers Huddle blog at the website of the San Jose Mercury News is being dismantled. Over the last three years, Vince Chhabria had built the blog into a reliably solid read. He and Erik Larson, who joined the blog as a co-writer last year, will be missed.

Here's why I'm so bummed this blog is defunct - 49ers Huddle was unlike anything else on the net. For one thing, Chhabria is a really smart fan. His blog didn't have to bother with scatalogical humor (like I do) to make a piece worth reading. He also didn't bother with dull topics or doltish imagination land nonsense. He found interesting issues and offered thought-provoking commentary in every piece. While other bloggers are plenty bright, Chhabria was just a cut above. What's more, Chhabria was an unapologetic fan of the team. Most of the blogs worth reading are written by journalists. These are good sources of news, but when a blog is beholden to journalistic standards there's a limit to the commentary it can offer. Chhabria didn't bother with news clips, just commentary. In my mind, that's what blogs are for.

Chhabria's gone the way of most adults. He's put aside a bright future as a blogger for his career and family. Whatever, Vince. I'm going back to bed to hug my knees and shake.

Madden ratings

The Madden '09 ratings for the 49ers were published on IGN earlier in the week (I think it was this week). Here are some quick observations.

• The happiest player on the team is DeShaun Foster with a "Morale" rating of 99. He's one point away from achieving total consciousness, which is nice.
• At the other end of the happiness scale, Ashlie Lelie is a sad 60. Maybe they figure he misses Trent Dilfer. Two other players with a low morale are Michael Robinson and Manny Lawson. Uhhh, if those guys have low morale, Michael Strahan is borderline suicidal.
• Joe Nedney is apparently the most injury-prone player on the team with an "Injury" rating of 65 and a "Toughness" rating of 60. Nedney had this to say in response, "Fuck that. I am six feet, five inches of brick shit house. If Madden had a 'Brick Shit House' rating, I would be the first player with a rating over 100." Seriously, Nedney's probably the biggest kicker ever and he's never been injured. I haven't checked any other kickers, but their Toughness ratings better be in the teens.
  
• Frank Gore leads the team with a rating of 92 in "Trucking." Whatever that means, it sounds right.
• Andy Lee will not be denied. He joins Patrick Willis at the top of the "Overall" ratings. Not to mention, he is one of the top 50 players in the game. I think matching Pittsburgh's offer last offseason was one of the smartest moves McNolan's made.
• Willis also scores a rating of 98 in "Pursuit." It's pretty obvious that this is the result of the tackle in the Cardinals game. That was a great play, no doubt. More importantly, it's a play that not many other Middle Linebackers in the NFL could make. Certainly not Urlacher or Ray Lewis. But let's face it, if Willis doesn't tackle Morey, Michael Lewis does. There are other plays Willis made that, in isolation, were more impressive to me. No one jars the ball lose from Hines Ward like Willis did. He made Adrian Peterson look like a joke after Peterson destroyed some the best defenses in the game. But the Morey play is the one people remember.
• Jason Hill looks pretty damn good. He's at or near the top of the receiver group in "Speed," "Acceleration," "Elusiveness," "Jumping," "Juke Move," and "Spectacular Catch."
• Alex Smith and Shaun Hill are essentially the same. No surprise here.
  

Maybe I'll take a look at the division opponents in a later post. I'm curious to see how they rate Julius Jones and Seattle's O-Line.