Daily pre-season prediction

Daily pre-season prediction #2: Expect more "Big Nickel"

This deserves a little explanation. First, some background on the Big Nickel. The standard Nickel defense modifies a 4-3 to adjust for passing situations in three ways. The first modification is use of five defensive backs. The fifth back is usually a cornerback who has enough size to challenge a running play. Second, the package uses two linebackers, the middle backer and the strongside backer from the 4-3. The third modification is to the down lineman. The formation uses more pass rushing personnel on the line than would the 4-3. Think Justin Tuck playing defensive tackle. Kevin Lynch discussed the formation in several posts on the Niner Insider.

The 9ers tried a standard Nickel in '06 and had some success. In '07, they modified the standard Nickel by using four big down lineman (BY, Franklin, Sopoaga, and Douglas) and the two middle linebackers from the base 3-4, Willis and Derek Smith. Theoretically, this improved on the standard Nickel by adding size to the line and a bigger backer to stop the run. In short, it was a big Nickel. Seattle destroyed it. Later in the season, they modified the Big Nickel in two ways. First, they replaced one of the down lineman with an outside backer (Parys Haralson) who lined up in a 3-point stance. They also replaced Smith with Jeff Ulbrichshithouse. This was Big Nickel 2.0 and it was faster and more successful.

Now consider the team's offseason moves. Their biggest free agent acquisition was a big d-end who doesn't fit a traditional 3-4. They drafted another lineman who's too small to play a traditional 3-4 tackle and a corner with size and tackling ability, also known as a nickel back. They let Derek Smith go and haven't done much to replace him. These moves fit the Big Nickel perfectly.

Everyone knows the NFL is moving toward a more spread offense. More accurately, everyone wants to look like the Patriots did last year. (Football Outsiders recently pointed out that there is no movement toward a spread offense, just more use of the shotgun with 3+ receiver sets, but whatever.) The logical reaction is a defense that can shut down a high-octane passing offense without sacrificing the ability to stop the run. I foresee a lot more use of the Nickel defense all over the league this year. The 9ers' Big Nickel is nice upgrade to that model and should get a lot of use this year.