Daily pre-season prediction #4: The 49ers top linebacker in '08
This statement is either going to be my worst prediction ever (no small feat) or it's going to be the prediction that I direct people to every time I want them to know how smart I am: by the numbers (tackles for a loss, sacks, interceptions, etc.) Manny Lawson will be the best linebacker on the team this year.
If you're still reading, here are three reasons why I think Lawson will have a breakout year in '08.
Reason 1: the filter effect
If there's one thing the 49ers linebackers can do, it's tackle. Willis, Spikes, and Smith are all players who can shed blocks and finish tackles. So if there is a gap opposing offenses will pick on, it's Manny's. If nothing else, this will filter runing plays Manny's way, giving him the opportunity to make a lot of plays. Early last year, Manny showed an ability to get past blocking tight ends and penetrate the backfield. If he can pick up where he left off, he'll be making plays on runningbacks all day.
Reason 2: distractions
Related to reason 1, if you're the opposing offensive coordinator and there's one guy you not worried about picking up on a blitz, who's it gonna be? Obviously, a team has to account for Willis and Spikes, but the inside backers in the 3-4 are less likely to blitz than the outside backers. So for practical purposes, the real question for pass protection schemes is whether to focus on Justin Smith or Manny. I think Smith warrants more attention at this point in his career. As a result, I think Lawson will have some free shots at quarterbacks this year, particularly considering the right tackle situations in the NFC West.
Reason 3: incubation theory
Conventional wisdom suggests certain positions require a year or two of experience in order to develop. In essence, they have to sit on an NFL sideline each Sunday for a season or two before they're done incubating. The most common example is the wide receiver position, where there's a theory that a player requires two years of NFL experience before he will make any contribution (a theory I've disputed ad nauseum elsewhere). Regardless of the validity of this theory, many pass rushers do take time to develop. Here are a few 3-4 outside linebackers who serve as examples ...
- Joey Porter: 2 sacks his first year, 10.5 sacks his second year
- Willie McGinest: 4.5 sacks his first year, 11 sacks his second year
- Greg Ellis: 3 sacks his first year, 12.5 sacks last year
- Mike Vrabel: never totaled more than 3 sacks in his first five years, recorded 12.5 last year
In his first year, Manny lined up next to guys like Derek Smith, Brandon Moore, and Jeff Ulbrichshithouse. These guys didn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of offensive coordinators. Last year, some were calling Manny a disappointment. After a strong showing in the pre-season and the first two regular season games, he changed some minds. This year's a different story. With a stronger supporting cast, I think Manny's going to have a banner year in '08.
