Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Impeccable timing

I don't really have much to say about Mike Singletary taking over for Mike Nolan. That's because I don't really anticipate the change having much of an effect. Few do. Sure, Singletary might inspire the team a little more on gamedays, perhaps he'll be a little more sensible with his red hankey, but he's already said he won't shake up the org chart or the roster. How much of a difference can he really make?

But I will say this. The timing of the change was perfect. This is because it is so important for Singletary to get things started on a positive note. Making the change now gives him the best chance of notching a few wins. In fact, there is no better week than this one.

The difficulty of the 9ers' schedule reached its crescendo last week against the Giants in New Jersey. To this point in the season, the team has had the 10th most difficult schedule in the leage according to the Football Outsiders formula, which is based on average DVOA of opponents played. Going farward, they have the 11th easiest schedule.

The FO formula estimates the 9ers will win about 3 more games (this is not as bad as it sounds - the Titans have the highest number of estimated wins in the league with just over 5). In all likelihood, the team would have won these games regardless of which Mike was coaching. But if a change has to be made, now is the time to make it because if the team is going to win any games this season, they're going to win them now.