The new divide

After reading Matt Barrows' most recent Q&A, something became painfully obvious - 49ers fans are splitting in a bad way.

The readers' questions in the Q&A made statements like "I think maybe Scot [McCloughan] is also over-rated," followed by "It looks like McCloughan has built a team with good depth." A later question regarding Mike Nolan's infamous comments to Peter King stated "Nolan was stating the obvious, not taking a jab at Smith," followed by "Nolan has taken another shot/swipe at Alex Smith."

These were just a sample of the questions driving a wedge in the fan base. In reality, there are many more. Should the team move to Santa Clara? Should Alex Smith have been given more of an opportunity to win the starting job this season? Is Nolan too reluctant to give a starting job to a young player not drafted in the 1st round (i.e. Dashon Goldson, Captain Morgan, etc.)? These points are debated to no end in the comments sections of the various 9ers blogs (a problem we don't have in Nineragua). Obviously, we can't agree on everything, but it seems we're getting to a point where we can't agree on anything.

There are numerous ways to draw the line between the two camps in this little row, but the most obvious point of distinction relates to Nolan. On one side are the fans who believe Nolan has done a good job rebuilding the team and should be given the opportunity to finish what he's started. These are the guys who wore suits to the opener last year and send hate mail to Tim Kawakami. On the other side are those who feel Nolan should have already been hatcheted, or at the very least should be on a short chain this season.

This is nothing new. The aforementioned Kawakami's been talking about 49ers fans in these terms for months, if not years (I see this starting as far back as the '06 season). I always figured Kawakami had beef with Nolan. I still think he does. But the reality has set in that Kawakami is correct - we are a divided people.

The only thing that can unify us is a lopsided record. Either a lot of wins or a lot of losses and we'll all be back on the same page.

The record on O'Sullivan

With so much said lately about the relationship between J.T. O'Sullivan on the one hand and Nolan and Martz on the other, I thought I'd dig around and find exactly what has been said. Here are the quotes on un-dead J.T. from the two key decision-makers.

Nolan

[P]robably the biggest impression that I got out of the quarterback position is that it is probably going to be a three-man race rather than just two. I think J.T. O'Sullivan is going to get in the thick of it. - 5/5/2008

I've been impressed with J.T. He's probably more like Shaun than he is Alex. His familiarity with the offense is better. I like his demeanor, his ability to get things done. - 5/5/2008

Question: What about the quarterback situation? We're talking about Alex Smith and [...] Hill has a decent chance of being the starter here.
Answer: Yes he does, and J.T. O'Sullivan will be able to compete for the job as well. - 5/22/2008 (audio link)

J.T. O’Sullivan has got a good arm. But as we all know, it’s about scoring points, moving the ball down the field. So however you get that done, that’s what’s most important. - 6/2/2008

I'm not going to put the quarterbacks or coaching staff in a position where there's a timetable [...]. When we feel it's been determined by their performances, we'll make that decision. - 7/21/2008

Question: So is O'Sullivan back in the starting mix?
Answer: No, he's been in it all along [...]. As I said in the spring and I'll continue to say it, it is a battle between three guys. - 7/31/2008

The determining factor was, like I said, he's probably got the better command between the three [quarterbacks] right now. He played with consistency and we moved the ball well as a unit. We scored points, we did the things that I think our really important playing that position. - 8/22/2008

Martz

[O’Sullivan] is capable of being a starter in this league. He’s not a reliever, if you will. He’s not a backup. He’ll take full advantage of [the competition]. He’s a very fierce competitor. - 3/11/2008

I was looking for a guy who could make throws under duress and hard circumstances. It was obvious to me that he was very accurate and very intelligent. - 3/13/2008

He flicks the ball and hits the guy on a dead run. He has uncanny accuracy. He sees things. He's mobile. He's tough. He's all of those things. - 5/5/2008

Whoever we go with is the quarterback we feel we have to best chance to win with, period. - 8/12/2008

If nothing else, their comments have been consistent. There was a quarterback competition, the guy who showed he could put up points and win games would win the job, JTO showed he could do that. Despite the consistency of the message, the media has been using the episode to fabricate stories about wedges between factions of the team's management and secret plans to usurp Nolan's job. Perhaps all this speculation was unnecessary. Perhaps, the coaching staff has been on the same page all along.

Note: In fairness, I have to admit I was dead wrong when I discounted JTO's chances of starting the season opener. For an amazingly inaccurate prediction, click here.

Early season injuries

Last night's game certainly offered some reason for optimism. Not only did the starters play well, but they stayed healthy. That's more than you can say for some teams. Today, I'm taking a look at the injuries of the teams the 49ers will start the season against. This is without question the toughest stretch of the 9ers' schedule, so getting a little help in the form of timely injuries to their opponents could do wonders for the team's record out of the gate.

Week 1 - Arizona: At this point, only two starters for the Cards are unlikely to play in week 1. On offense, center Al Johnson had his knee scoped and is likely to miss the opener. This is particularly problematic for the Cards because backup center Scott Peters is already out for the season. Keep an eye on the center-quarterback exchange in week 1 - fumbled snaps are a frequent problem when a center goes down. On defense, defensive tackle Gabe Watson suffered a broken knee cap in a card game with Fat Tony. This fares well for the 9ers, who's interior lines on both sides of the ball are playing well. There are other minor injuries to some of the Cards' skill players, but nothing serious enough to keep them out of the lineup for the season opener.

Week 2 - Seattle: No team is limping into the '08 season like the Seahawks. There are almost too many injuries to count. Most significantly, Deion Branch is doubtful for the season opener as a result of off-season ACL surgery. This is big because he has destroyed the 49ers, averaging 99 yards per game against them over the last two seasons. Bobby Engram, who historically hasn't done much against the 49ers, will be out until at least week 4 with a shoulder injury. With the departure of D.J. Hackett, this leaves the Seahawks paper thin at receiver. Yesterday, Nate Burleson and Courtney Taylor were the starting wideouts. Needless to say, they kicked a lot of field goals. Then there's the O-line. Starting center Chris Spencer is doubtful for the season opener and his replacement, Chris Gray, had to retire earlier in camp with back problems. The team currently has Steve Vallos, a 7th round pick from 2007 who played tackle in college, at center (see "fumbled snaps," supra). Starting right tackle Sean Locklear is hurt but will likely be ready for the season opener. However, missing the rest of the pre-season means he may be a little slow in week 2. Porkchop Womack was hurt the first day of OTAs. Even the long snapper is hurt. Other than Branch and Engram, none of these injuries are significant in isolation. But when you add them all up, the result is a team that has had to shuffle its roster quite a bit. This fares well for the 49ers.

Week 3 - Detroit: The Lions are actually pretty healthy, but who cares? Detroit sucks. No, seriously, who cares?

Week 4 - New Orleans: The big news here is the injury to Hollis Thomas. Thomas was a quality defensive tackle, but he was already hearing the footsteps of 1st round pick Sedrick Ellis. The injury thrusts Ellis into the starting lineup for the week 3 match up against the 49ers in New Orleans. I'm not sure this really works in the 9ers' favor - Ellis is a beast. Other than Thomas, cornerback Mike McKenzie and Jeremy Shockey are huge douche bags ... er, I mean, they're both coming back from injuries and will probably be in the lineup in week 4, although whether they'll be playing at full speed is yet to be seen.

Week 5 - New England: The one team with more players missing camp than the Seahawks is the Patsies. Unfortunately, that doesn't matter. So long as Brady and Moss are healthy, there's really no way the 49ers can beat this team.

Week 6 - Philadelphia: As of today, the Iggles have a pretty healthy roster. That said, I fully expect Donovan McNabb to be on IR by Week 6. That's just how he rolls.

Since I'm starting to speculate, I'll just stop here. The key game here is the Seahawks in week 2. If the Seahawks are hobbling, 3-0 is conceivable.

Daily pre-season prediction

Daily pre-season prediction #4: The 49ers top linebacker in '08

This statement is either going to be my worst prediction ever (no small feat) or it's going to be the prediction that I direct people to every time I want them to know how smart I am: by the numbers (tackles for a loss, sacks, interceptions, etc.) Manny Lawson will be the best linebacker on the team this year.

If you're still reading, here are three reasons why I think Lawson will have a breakout year in '08.

Reason 1: the filter effect

If there's one thing the 49ers linebackers can do, it's tackle. Willis, Spikes, and Smith are all players who can shed blocks and finish tackles. So if there is a gap opposing offenses will pick on, it's Manny's. If nothing else, this will filter runing plays Manny's way, giving him the opportunity to make a lot of plays. Early last year, Manny showed an ability to get past blocking tight ends and penetrate the backfield. If he can pick up where he left off, he'll be making plays on runningbacks all day.

Reason 2: distractions

Related to reason 1, if you're the opposing offensive coordinator and there's one guy you not worried about picking up on a blitz, who's it gonna be? Obviously, a team has to account for Willis and Spikes, but the inside backers in the 3-4 are less likely to blitz than the outside backers. So for practical purposes, the real question for pass protection schemes is whether to focus on Justin Smith or Manny. I think Smith warrants more attention at this point in his career. As a result, I think Lawson will have some free shots at quarterbacks this year, particularly considering the right tackle situations in the NFC West.

Reason 3: incubation theory

Conventional wisdom suggests certain positions require a year or two of experience in order to develop. In essence, they have to sit on an NFL sideline each Sunday for a season or two before they're done incubating. The most common example is the wide receiver position, where there's a theory that a player requires two years of NFL experience before he will make any contribution (a theory I've disputed ad nauseum elsewhere). Regardless of the validity of this theory, many pass rushers do take time to develop. Here are a few 3-4 outside linebackers who serve as examples ...

• Joey Porter: 2 sacks his first year, 10.5 sacks his second year
• Willie McGinest: 4.5 sacks his first year, 11 sacks his second year
• Greg Ellis: 3 sacks his first year, 12.5 sacks last year
• Mike Vrabel: never totaled more than 3 sacks in his first five years, recorded 12.5 last year

Sure, there are freaks like Merriman and Ware who were productive as rookies, but that's just the exception that proves the rule (whatever that means). Point is, Manny could prove a pass rusher yet.

In his first year, Manny lined up next to guys like Derek Smith, Brandon Moore, and Jeff Ulbrichshithouse. These guys didn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of offensive coordinators. Last year, some were calling Manny a disappointment. After a strong showing in the pre-season and the first two regular season games, he changed some minds. This year's a different story. With a stronger supporting cast, I think Manny's going to have a banner year in '08.

Treating blackout

Don't be surprised if you turn on your TV on Friday night expecting to see the 49ers-Raiders game and instead find yourself watching Xena, Princess Warrior (now in syndication!). The game is being blacked out, per NFL policy. Most Bay Area outlets are playing a tape delay at 10 p.m. If you live in the Bay Area and want to see when and where the game will be carried, here's a link to AOL's television listings guide.

It really pisses me off when a game is blacked out. For the uninitiated, the NFL requires local television to blackout any game that doesn't sell out within 72 hours of game time. Often times, the local TV station that would air the game will buy the remaining tickets themselves, allowing them to carry the game in spite of the empty seats. Other times, the team's owner himself will purchase the remaining tickets, just to keep the game on for the local fans. Dr. J., for all his shortcomings, has done this in the past. Al Davis, not so much.

In an era of tax dollar-funded stadiums, I think owners owe it to the cities in which they play to provide tickets that are affordable to the average citizen. Especially when you consider the evidence that these stadiums do not "pay back" the city in revenue, as some would argue. But if they won't provide reasonably-priced tickets, at least let the average folks watch the fucking game on TV. Denying fans not only hurts league-wide revenues, it hurts the team's local fan base in the long-run.

For an anecdotal explanation of how the blackout policy works, click here. For an interesting attempt to explain the rule, including some of the rule's history (in the comments) click here. For any reader who's interested in the issue of public money in sports from an economist's perspective, get a used copy of Sports, Jobs & Taxes, by Roger Noll from Stanford and Andrew Zimbalist from Smith College. This book was forced upon me as a part of my education in economics and I liked it so much I read it twice.

Smokin that Raiderjuana

This weekend, the 49ers are playing the Raiders in what some media outposts are feebly trying to pass off as a Bay Area rivalry. Truth is, there's no rivalry. For the most part, I think 9ers fans have mixed feelings of love and fear for the Raiders. Meanwhile, Raiders fans ... well, I would never attempt to guess what goes on in the heads of Raiders fans.

I think Raiders fans are totally awesome. I also think they're out of their fucking minds.

Living in the Bay Area, I meet these people every day. I'll never forget the time I went to the grocery store to buy a tri-tip and the meat guy was wearing a Raiders hat. He said "You buying this for a bar-b-que to watch the Raiders game?" "No," I said, "they have a bye this weekend." "Where you from?" he asked. "I'm from the city. You?" "I'm from Raiders," he said. I might be confused by this whole interaction had I not been so familiar with Raiders doctrine. You see, a Raiders fan feels completely free to use the word "Raiders" in any sentence. That's how much they love the Raiders. When judging fanmanship, you really have to respect that.

Then there are fans like "raiderjoe" a regular contributor to the Football Outsiders comment section (and probably countless other blogs) who has developed something of a cult following with the blog's readers for the blind loyalty and mind boggling incoherence of his comments. Here are some of his recent highlights.

McFadden will be great player for Raiders. Possibly bets running back since Bo Jackson. Raiders rush offense 6th last year, probably be 1 or 2 in 2008. especially with passing attack of Russell to keep defense s honest.
- Raiderjoe — 5/20/2008

Poster sounds insance. No way are Chargers going to dominate divisons ... Keep dreamign about Chargers cuase it sure as not going to happen in real life.
- Raiderjoe — 4/8/2008

Denver is not only threat to SD. Oakland as big as threat as Denbver, but even bigger.
- Raiderjoe — 2/16/2008

With fans like this guy, how can anyone hate the Raiders?

And then there's this, which just brings tears of joy to my eye every time I watch it.



I'm rooting for the Raiders this season. I think DMC is going to be a bad ass in his rookie season. With guys like Derrick Burgess and Nnamdi Awsom-O 4000, that defense is going to be tough to beat. So I'm saving all my hatred for the 49ers real rivals.

Hot, steaming pile of comments (amended)

I'm not the only one who is annoyed by Tim Kawakami's blog. There's a small legion of sports fans in the Bay Area who cringe every time they read one of TK's bolder-than-thou headlines. But some TK haters are getting a little out of hand.

Here's how the latest round shenanigans started. The word "owner" appeared in the 9ers 2008 media guide next to Jed York's name. The implication is Jed's officially become part of the organization's ownership. In today's post on Talking Points, Kawakami made love to himself for claiming Jed was essentially the team's owner last winter.

Anyway, there's nothing special about the post. Kawakami has dedicated the site to stroking his ego and readers can hear all about how smart he is any day of the week. This particular post is notable because of what you find in the comments. There's a healthy tradition of readers shredding TK in response to his inflammatory editorials. Sometimes, I feel like the commentors read my mind.

Find more videos like this on www.truveo.com.

But the comments in TK's blog have eroded to kindergarten name calling. Rather than reacting to the post, the readers react to TK. What's the point?

There are two reasons I don't post reader comments on this blog - 1) I don't have any readers, and 2) the law of nature that states all threads of comments must descend into retarded fuckery. Every once in a while, the comments of a blog will add to the blog. The commentors might make a funny jab or offer an insightful twist on the post. Inevitably, a cancerous dip shit jumps in and has to contradict everything everybody says. This is an absolute inevitability. There can be no exceptions. And once the cancer arrives, he will never go away. No matter how flawed his arguments, he refuses to die. He's like Jason, or Gavin Newsom. He keeps coming back, even though he's obviously worn out his welcome.

Here in Nineragua, we repress dissent with prior restraint. Sure, it inhibits the free flow if ideas, but isn't that the beauty of the internet? Infinite free real estate for everybody to babble all over. My advice to TK - come to the dark side. Turn off comments, you'll like it.