Nineragua

When Winning Is Bad

2008-12-09T14:51:00.000-08:00

If the entire season were determined by the first three and the last three games alone, the 49ers would be among the league's elites. (Actually, they'd have a .600 winning pct. over the last three seasons.) For whatever reason, under Mike Nolan the team had a tendency to start strong out of the gate, shit the bed weeks 4-12, then come out of no where to beat a playoff contender as the season winded down.

The problem with this pattern is the false sense of hope (and hype) it creates going into the following season. "Sure, Nolan/Smith/the defense/the receiving corps had a rough go last year," we fans would say,"but things are looking up." In reality, things weren't looking up. The following season would come and the 49ers would continue to eek out victories against bad teams and get utterly destroyed by good teams when it mattered. So the optimism created by the previous year's strong finish was never really warranted.

Like a recurring nightmare, it's happening again. The media is lobbying for Young Jedi to anoint Mike Singletary the head coach for 2009. In perfect harmony, they're lobbying for Singletary to anoint Shaun Hill the starting quarterback for 2009. This is logical. The team appears it will finish the 2008 season on the upswing and most of the recent success can and should be attributed to Singletary and Hill. With a little more cohesion on the o-line and some much needed consistency in the offensive coordinator's office they'll head into 2009 primed for a winning record. But I can't help but ask, is this a mirage?

I mean, I'm happy for the victories and all. And I sincerely hope the 9ers actually are a better team than they were in 2007. But the fact is, they're substantially the same team that they were in 2007. Sure, the receivers are different, the o-line's been reshuffled, and Martz is calling the plays. But other than that, they're pretty much the same old 9ers. Justin Smith is good, but so was Bryant Young. Some might say Shaun Hill is a difference-maker, but at least some are slow to hop on his wagon.

It appears the 49ers still are not sold on Shaunhill [intentionally misspelled], still believe he’s OK, but over the long haul is not a winning quarterback — at least not a big winner — and can’t take them where they need to go. It seems clear no one in that quiet building in Santa Clara is about to say Shaunhill is next season’s starter, or even that next season’s starter currently works in the building.

Let me be the first to say, that may be an accurate assessment. It worries me that most of the ink spilled over the last few days has been dispelling this logic. Even the Lowell Cohn article the above-quoted material comes from goes on to say "[Hill] is the genuine article — has presence, the knack, the feel — whatever you want to call it." Maybe we could wait until the man gets that 6th NFL start under his belt before claiming he is the "genuine article."

As the last three seasons have taught me as a fan, you can't put all your eggs in one basket, particularly when that basket didn't do shit until it was already eliminated from the playoffs.

Sorry.

My favorite team is the 49ers

2008-11-18T17:11:00.001-08:00

My second favorite team is whoever is playing against the Cowboys.

Here are some things to watch in this week's game, mostly based on Football Outsiders' most recent numbers.

To start with, Dallas's defense has some holes that play to the 9ers' strengths. The 9ers' O-line ranks 5th in run blocking and should be able to open lanes against Dallas's 22nd-ranked run defense. Last week, Dallas's run defense showed some backbone, holding the league's top rusher to 68 yards. In their previous outing, the same defense allowed the Giants' 200 rushing yards and 12 rushing first downs. What the Giants did and the 'Skins failed to do was run up the gut on big Jay Ratliff. He's a 3-4 DT with 30 tackles and 6 sacks. That's not supposed to happen. Ratliff vs. Heitmann/Baas/Wragge/Rachal is the match-up to watch in this game.

In the air, Dallas's defense ranks 20th in stopping passes to TEs and 19th in stopping passes to RBs. The way the 9ers' O-line has been pass blocking since Shaun Hill stepped in, I'm confident the team can give Hill time to get the ball out to his receivers. If not, the TE and RB outlets should be available. When faced with a stout defense, Hill always seems to find his RB underneath. That's at least part of the reason Gore is second only to Reggie Bush in receiving yards by a RB. Look for Gore and Robinson to make a difference with their hands this week. That sounds kind of gross.

On defense, the 9ers have to play smart. On Sunday night, the Cowboys exploited the Skins' tendency to over-pursue by running misdirections every series, even on passing routes. The 9ers have that same over-pursuit weakness. They were run ragged earlier in the year by the Pats and the Eagles, who played that same scheme.

Against the pass, the 9ers have been the 6th best team at stopping TEs. Subtract the game in Seattle where John Carlson went gonzo and the defense is in the top 3 vs. the TE. That's big against Romo, who's completed more passes to Jason Witten than any other target. Speaking of Romo's other target, seen TO's numbers recently? He ranks 75th in the league in DYAR. That's worse that Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Jason Hill, and Josh Morgan. Don't expect the 9ers to get any pressure on Romo. The 9ers' can't sack groceries.

There is no bigger discrepancy between the 9ers and the Cowboys than that on special teams. The 49ers rank 1st in the league in special teams DVOA going into week 12 and are strong in every area. The Cowboys rank 30th and are particularly weak in their kick off and punt coverage. That makes Allen Rossum the man to watch on special teams.

You're making me blush

2008-11-18T14:00:00.000-08:00

Headlines read:

"Cowboys Get Their Leader Back, Return to Playoff Race"
"Romo Has Cowboys Singing Confident Tune"
"Tony Romo Will Be in MVP Mix if Cowboys Make Playoffs"
"Tony Romo's a Hero"

Are you kidding me? A hero? I'm so tired of the media drinking from Jerry Jones's well of Tony Romo Kool Aid. In spite of the headlines, Romo was the among the league's worst quarterbacks last week.

Statistical evidence be damned! Somehow, "Romo's presence, [Peter King is convinced], helped the Dallas defense in Washington." That's right, Tony Romo improved the Cowboys' defense just by being present. "I'll be seeing Romo later tonight," King continued, "good thing I loaded up on Sproingo."

Actually, I'm happy about all the Romo boners in the media. For one thing, it gives 49ers fans another reason to hate the Cowboys. More importantly, it means the Cowboys are thinking playoffs. In other words, they're looking past the 9ers.

Impeccable timing

2008-10-22T11:49:00.000-07:00

I don't really have much to say about Mike Singletary taking over for Mike Nolan. That's because I don't really anticipate the change having much of an effect. Few do. Sure, Singletary might inspire the team a little more on gamedays, perhaps he'll be a little more sensible with his red hankey, but he's already said he won't shake up the org chart or the roster. How much of a difference can he really make?

But I will say this. The timing of the change was perfect. This is because it is so important for Singletary to get things started on a positive note. Making the change now gives him the best chance of notching a few wins. In fact, there is no better week than this one.

The difficulty of the 9ers' schedule reached its crescendo last week against the Giants in New Jersey. To this point in the season, the team has had the 10th most difficult schedule in the leage according to the Football Outsiders formula, which is based on average DVOA of opponents played. Going farward, they have the 11th easiest schedule.

The FO formula estimates the 9ers will win about 3 more games (this is not as bad as it sounds - the Titans have the highest number of estimated wins in the league with just over 5). In all likelihood, the team would have won these games regardless of which Mike was coaching. But if a change has to be made, now is the time to make it because if the team is going to win any games this season, they're going to win them now.

Life on Martz: Part 2

2008-10-17T13:21:00.000-07:00

Trent Dilfer's brain is still fully functional. Dilfer made an appearance on KNBR's Murph & Mac show this morning and killed it. This was the most insightful commentary on the relationship between the Mike Martz offense and the other areas's of the team that I've heard yet.

Will play for burritos

2008-09-26T13:00:00.000-07:00

McNolan has regularly stated that the 49ers are a team that will "build through the draft" and not through free agency. Yet, the team has been among the most active free agent buyers in the league over the last three seasons. This last offseason has proven the most fruitful free agency period for the team. Here's a look at just how fruity their FA acquisitions have been so far this season:

Isaac Bruce: Leads the team in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and yards per catch. Currently 8th in the league in receiving DVOA. More importantly, by singing Bruce the 9ers won't have to play against him this season. Over the last five seasons, Bruce has averaged 75 yards/game against the 9ers, compared to 60 yards/game against the rest of the league over that same span.
DeShaun Foster: He hasn't done anything spectular thus far, but that's a good thing. Foster's role on the team is that of insurance policy for Frank Gore. In my opinion, he's a better insurance policy than was Maurice Hicks. Hicks, by the way, has returned four kicks and hasn't touched the ball on offense in Minnesota.
Bryant Johnson: Johnson has been underwhelming thus far, but has the potential to bust a big game. It may be his turn this week against New England, whose pass defense DVOA ranks 24th in the league against #2 receivers and 32nd in the league against 3rd and 4th receivers. Johnson is also the only receiver O'Sullivan has connected with in a designed red-zone route.
J.T. O'Sullivan: If you measure a free agent signing by production per dollar spent, O'Sullivan was has to be one of the best free agent pick ups in years.
Allen Rossum: Based on what we saw in the preseason, it's fair to assume that Rossum will break a return for a touchdown at some point this year. And something tells me the team wouldn't run a reverse on 4th and goal to Maurice Hicks.
Barry Simms: I was shocked, SHOCKED when Jonas Jennings was injured. In replacing Jennings, Simms has been far from perfect. He whiffed a few blocks last week and may have cost the team points. But he's looked good in run blocking. Maybe Simms is just a whiter version of Kwame Harris, but there's one key difference between the two players: 49ers fans don't loathe Simms.
Justin Smith: When the 9ers signed Smith in the offseason, skeptics repeatedly pointed to the fact that his sack numbers were never particularly high. But he's already matched his sack total from last year and he's 3rd on the team in tackles.
Takeo Spikes: Spikes was a bit rusty when he arrived in the offseason. In week one, Spikes couldn't catch a kickoff that floated into his arms like a feather. Last week, he pulled down a low-flying Cruise missile. Now that he has definitely beat out Jeff Ulbrichshithouse for the starting Ted linebacker spot, he's likely to start contributung more and more each week.

Of the eight players named above, only Foster is not a starter. (While Rossum is a specialist, I include him as a starter as I would a punter or place kicker.) Using Sando's NFC West Roided-Out Roster for week five, I can tell you that no team in the division has this many starters from the '08 free agency crop. For this post's empty promise, I pledge to take a look around the league at other teams that made a splash in free agency last offseason to see if anyone has added as many starters to the lineup as the 9ers. I suspect the only teams that will be remotely colse are the Dolphins and Falcons -- not exactly good company.

There are good things and bad things about this many free agents cracking the starting lineup. The good thing is that most of these players are quality players, some are Pro Bowlers (non-PBA), who came to the 9ers because they wanted to play here. There's the right mix of a willingness to pay big contracts and a chance at success. There was a time when the team was signing vagrants off the streets of San Francisco to fill the holes in their remarkably shitty team. That's where the 'Fins and Falcons are now and the 9ers are differently situated.

The bad thing is free agents can corrode a roster. They are generally old, expensive, and transiet. Sure, Alex Smith costs more than O'Sullivan, but that's the exception to the rule. Guys like Bruce, Foster and Spikes are more common. They're in their 30s, earn about $2M/year, and may leave as soon as their contract runs out. That's not helping anyone beyond this season. But maybe that's all the management is thinking about.

Life on Martz: Part 1

2008-09-11T05:51:00.001-07:00

There have been rumblings that the defense isn't playing up to snuff so far this year. Looking at the scores against the Cardinals and the Seahawks, that would appear true. But in watching the first two games, I've been impressed with the defense. They've haven't been gashed for big plays, save one long pass to Steve Breaston in week 1 and the TD run by Julius Jones on a safety blitz in week 2. In fact, the 49ers defense is currently in the top 10 in the league in yards allowed/play and 20 + yard plays allowed. Plus they've got sacks and turnovers. What more could you ask? So if they've been so good at limiting opposing offenses, why are they allowing so many points?

The answer, like all things this year, has something to do with Mike Martz. Specifically, the Martzian offense is not giving the defense much help in terms of field position. Field positions is a simple metric, but the implications are more complex. If a defense has the offense pinned back against their own goal line, the defense can be more aggressive with blitzes, stunts, and coverages. Conversely, when the offense has the defense near their own endzone, the defense has to play more conservatively and can't afford exotic and risky blitzes. Welcome to life on Martz.

To illustrate how the defense has been given a shitty lot the last few weeks, I'm using two field positions stats. First, I looked at how many the points the defense has given up when the opponents' offense starts with a turnover-induced short field. Second, special teams has been putting the defense in terrible situations with poor coverage on punts, so I looked at the drive charts to see where the other teams are starting their drives after the offense punts.

When looking at these numbers, keep two things in mind. First, the average starting field position for most teams over the course of a season is between their own 25- and their own 30-yard line. Second, the team that averages a better starting field position than their opponent almost always wins. Pat Kirwan ran a nice story documenting this last year and the guy at Advanced NFL Stats (a nice site) gave the argument a more mathy support.

First, turnovers. The Martz offense has turned the ball over six times in two weeks. Here's the opponents' average starting field position after turnovers and how the defense has fared in response.

Opponents' avg. starting field position after turnovers: 49ers' 26-yard line
Total points allowed by the defense after 6 turnovers: 10 ... total!

That's pretty impressive if you ask me. Yes, the stats are skewed because the Seahawks recovered a fumble and scored without ever letting the defense take the field, but even subtracting that turnover from the calculation the defense has still responded well to turnovers.

As for the punting unit, the comparison is simple because there have been just as many punts (six) as turnovers. Here are the stats.

Opponents' avg. starting field position after punts: Own 44-yard line
Total points allowed by the defense after 6 punts: 23

There are two things that lead to this abnormal starting field position the punting unit is allowing. First is the punting unit itself. Andy Lee's 45-yard average is good for 13th in the league. That's not terrible. It's the coverage that's killing the team. In spite of Lee's decent average punt, the punting unit is 30th in the league in net avg. That means they are allowing big returns. And from who? Steve Breaston and Michael Bumpus? WTF? The other thing that leads to this field position is the place on the field from which the team is punting. This is on Martz. If the offense is punting from deep in its own territory, the aren't helping the defense. I should mention here that 6 punts ties the offense for 3rd fewest punts in the league. Thank god.

These numbers are nothing to sneeze at - field position is important. Consider the average starting field position the offense is giving the opponents. Excluding kickoffs, the opponents' average starting field position is the 49ers' 41-yard line. That's just awful. Against the Cardinals, the 49ers gave up starting field position of the 49ers' 47-yard line INCLUDING KICKOFFS! There's no way you can win a game when the opponent starts in your territory more than they start in their own.

I have a deep fear that one of the side effects of the Martzian offense is a tendency to give up the ball deep in your own territory. If that's the case, look for the defense's numbers to sag this year even though they are playing well. As well as can be expected, anyway, for a defense with its back pinned against the wall. Hopefully, the offense can pick up the slack and keep the defense off the ropes. If not, every week is going to be a shootout.

Play the kid

2008-09-09T06:48:00.000-07:00

An e-mail exchange with 49ers super-genius Ofercofer brought about the following comment:

[...] the defense created good pressure for a half but has to create turnovers one way or another. It's time to gamble on Goldson at free safety.

He's right in two respects. First, he's right that Goldson is a gamble. For one thing, he's only been in the big leagues for one year. According to Barrows, Nolan trusts Mark Roman and is not likely to hand the reigns of the defense to an unestablished player. Apparently, while Roman has 5 interceptions in 8 years and had 0 interceptions last year, he is wise in ways undetectable to the common fan.

Along these same lines, Goldson may leave the defense susceptible to the big play. In the Cardinals game last week, Steve Breaston beat Goldson over the top for a 40-yard play to the 1-yard line that lead to the Cardinals' first touchdown.

In spite of that fact, Ofercofer is also right that now is the time to get Goldson into the lineup. In '07, the 9ers gave up 51 pass plays for more than 20 yards. That was good for fourth worst in the NFL. They can't do much worse with Goldson in the lineup, can they?

Goldson's upside, of course, is his potential to be the ball hawk Roman is not. Maiocco juxtaposed the two in the early pre-season. Essentially, his comparison boils down to this,

[Roman] is a solid all-around player [while Goldson] seems to have a flair for being in the middle of the action.

Another argument that Goldson is ready now is his pedigree. By and large, Pac-10 defensive backs arrive in the league NFL-ready. Here's a list of some other Pac-10 DBs who have made it big, along with the year in their career they cracked the starting lineup:

Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of Pac-10 defensive backs who never see a snap. I put together this list to show that many Pac-10 defensive backs who do make it into their team's starting lineup are ready to do so early in their pro careers. I assume that this has something to do with the Pac-10's tendency to emphasize pro-style offenses and disciplined passing games. That's my best guess.

As this applies to Goldson, consider the offenses he faced in college. He saw USC with Leinart, Cal with Aaron Rodgers, Stanford with Trent Edwards, Oregon State with Derek Anderson, Oregon with Kellen Clemens and Dennis Dixon, and the list goes on. Having seen these offenses before arriving to the NFL, it's no wonder he does so well on the practice field. Now's the time to let him take that onto the game field.

The new divide

2008-08-31T12:46:00.000-07:00

After reading Matt Barrows' most recent Q&A, something became painfully obvious - 49ers fans are splitting in a bad way.

The readers' questions in the Q&A made statements like "I think maybe Scot [McCloughan] is also over-rated," followed by "It looks like McCloughan has built a team with good depth." A later question regarding Mike Nolan's infamous comments to Peter King stated "Nolan was stating the obvious, not taking a jab at Smith," followed by "Nolan has taken another shot/swipe at Alex Smith."

These were just a sample of the questions driving a wedge in the fan base. In reality, there are many more. Should the team move to Santa Clara? Should Alex Smith have been given more of an opportunity to win the starting job this season? Is Nolan too reluctant to give a starting job to a young player not drafted in the 1st round (i.e. Dashon Goldson, Captain Morgan, etc.)? These points are debated to no end in the comments sections of the various 9ers blogs (a problem we don't have in Nineragua). Obviously, we can't agree on everything, but it seems we're getting to a point where we can't agree on anything.

There are numerous ways to draw the line between the two camps in this little row, but the most obvious point of distinction relates to Nolan. On one side are the fans who believe Nolan has done a good job rebuilding the team and should be given the opportunity to finish what he's started. These are the guys who wore suits to the opener last year and send hate mail to Tim Kawakami. On the other side are those who feel Nolan should have already been hatcheted, or at the very least should be on a short chain this season.

This is nothing new. The aforementioned Kawakami's been talking about 49ers fans in these terms for months, if not years (I see this starting as far back as the '06 season). I always figured Kawakami had beef with Nolan. I still think he does. But the reality has set in that Kawakami is correct - we are a divided people.

The only thing that can unify us is a lopsided record. Either a lot of wins or a lot of losses and we'll all be back on the same page.

The record on O'Sullivan

2008-08-22T15:43:00.000-07:00

With so much said lately about the relationship between J.T. O'Sullivan on the one hand and Nolan and Martz on the other, I thought I'd dig around and find exactly what has been said. Here are the quotes on un-dead J.T. from the two key decision-makers.

Nolan

[P]robably the biggest impression that I got out of the quarterback position is that it is probably going to be a three-man race rather than just two. I think J.T. O'Sullivan is going to get in the thick of it. - 5/5/2008

I've been impressed with J.T. He's probably more like Shaun than he is Alex. His familiarity with the offense is better. I like his demeanor, his ability to get things done. - 5/5/2008

Question: What about the quarterback situation? We're talking about Alex Smith and [...] Hill has a decent chance of being the starter here.
Answer: Yes he does, and J.T. O'Sullivan will be able to compete for the job as well. - 5/22/2008 (audio link)

J.T. O’Sullivan has got a good arm. But as we all know, it’s about scoring points, moving the ball down the field. So however you get that done, that’s what’s most important. - 6/2/2008

I'm not going to put the quarterbacks or coaching staff in a position where there's a timetable [...]. When we feel it's been determined by their performances, we'll make that decision. - 7/21/2008

Question: So is O'Sullivan back in the starting mix?
Answer: No, he's been in it all along [...]. As I said in the spring and I'll continue to say it, it is a battle between three guys. - 7/31/2008

The determining factor was, like I said, he's probably got the better command between the three [quarterbacks] right now. He played with consistency and we moved the ball well as a unit. We scored points, we did the things that I think our really important playing that position. - 8/22/2008

Martz

[O’Sullivan] is capable of being a starter in this league. He’s not a reliever, if you will. He’s not a backup. He’ll take full advantage of [the competition]. He’s a very fierce competitor. - 3/11/2008

I was looking for a guy who could make throws under duress and hard circumstances. It was obvious to me that he was very accurate and very intelligent. - 3/13/2008

He flicks the ball and hits the guy on a dead run. He has uncanny accuracy. He sees things. He's mobile. He's tough. He's all of those things. - 5/5/2008

Whoever we go with is the quarterback we feel we have to best chance to win with, period. - 8/12/2008

If nothing else, their comments have been consistent. There was a quarterback competition, the guy who showed he could put up points and win games would win the job, JTO showed he could do that. Despite the consistency of the message, the media has been using the episode to fabricate stories about wedges between factions of the team's management and secret plans to usurp Nolan's job. Perhaps all this speculation was unnecessary. Perhaps, the coaching staff has been on the same page all along.

Note: In fairness, I have to admit I was dead wrong when I discounted JTO's chances of starting the season opener. For an amazingly inaccurate prediction, click here.

Early season injuries

2008-08-17T12:44:00.000-07:00

Last night's game certainly offered some reason for optimism. Not only did the starters play well, but they stayed healthy. That's more than you can say for some teams. Today, I'm taking a look at the injuries of the teams the 49ers will start the season against. This is without question the toughest stretch of the 9ers' schedule, so getting a little help in the form of timely injuries to their opponents could do wonders for the team's record out of the gate.

Week 1 - Arizona: At this point, only two starters for the Cards are unlikely to play in week 1. On offense, center Al Johnson had his knee scoped and is likely to miss the opener. This is particularly problematic for the Cards because backup center Scott Peters is already out for the season. Keep an eye on the center-quarterback exchange in week 1 - fumbled snaps are a frequent problem when a center goes down. On defense, defensive tackle Gabe Watson suffered a broken knee cap in a card game with Fat Tony. This fares well for the 9ers, who's interior lines on both sides of the ball are playing well. There are other minor injuries to some of the Cards' skill players, but nothing serious enough to keep them out of the lineup for the season opener.

Week 2 - Seattle: No team is limping into the '08 season like the Seahawks. There are almost too many injuries to count. Most significantly, Deion Branch is doubtful for the season opener as a result of off-season ACL surgery. This is big because he has destroyed the 49ers, averaging 99 yards per game against them over the last two seasons. Bobby Engram, who historically hasn't done much against the 49ers, will be out until at least week 4 with a shoulder injury. With the departure of D.J. Hackett, this leaves the Seahawks paper thin at receiver. Yesterday, Nate Burleson and Courtney Taylor were the starting wideouts. Needless to say, they kicked a lot of field goals. Then there's the O-line. Starting center Chris Spencer is doubtful for the season opener and his replacement, Chris Gray, had to retire earlier in camp with back problems. The team currently has Steve Vallos, a 7th round pick from 2007 who played tackle in college, at center (see "fumbled snaps," supra). Starting right tackle Sean Locklear is hurt but will likely be ready for the season opener. However, missing the rest of the pre-season means he may be a little slow in week 2. Porkchop Womack was hurt the first day of OTAs. Even the long snapper is hurt. Other than Branch and Engram, none of these injuries are significant in isolation. But when you add them all up, the result is a team that has had to shuffle its roster quite a bit. This fares well for the 49ers.

Week 3 - Detroit: The Lions are actually pretty healthy, but who cares? Detroit sucks. No, seriously, who cares?

Week 4 - New Orleans: The big news here is the injury to Hollis Thomas. Thomas was a quality defensive tackle, but he was already hearing the footsteps of 1st round pick Sedrick Ellis. The injury thrusts Ellis into the starting lineup for the week 3 match up against the 49ers in New Orleans. I'm not sure this really works in the 9ers' favor - Ellis is a beast. Other than Thomas, cornerback Mike McKenzie and Jeremy Shockey are huge douche bags ... er, I mean, they're both coming back from injuries and will probably be in the lineup in week 4, although whether they'll be playing at full speed is yet to be seen.

Week 5 - New England: The one team with more players missing camp than the Seahawks is the Patsies. Unfortunately, that doesn't matter. So long as Brady and Moss are healthy, there's really no way the 49ers can beat this team.

Week 6 - Philadelphia: As of today, the Iggles have a pretty healthy roster. That said, I fully expect Donovan McNabb to be on IR by Week 6. That's just how he rolls.

Since I'm starting to speculate, I'll just stop here. The key game here is the Seahawks in week 2. If the Seahawks are hobbling, 3-0 is conceivable.

Daily pre-season prediction

2008-08-15T17:17:00.001-07:00

Daily pre-season prediction #4: The 49ers top linebacker in '08

This statement is either going to be my worst prediction ever (no small feat) or it's going to be the prediction that I direct people to every time I want them to know how smart I am: by the numbers (tackles for a loss, sacks, interceptions, etc.) Manny Lawson will be the best linebacker on the team this year.

If you're still reading, here are three reasons why I think Lawson will have a breakout year in '08.

Reason 1: the filter effect

If there's one thing the 49ers linebackers can do, it's tackle. Willis, Spikes, and Smith are all players who can shed blocks and finish tackles. So if there is a gap opposing offenses will pick on, it's Manny's. If nothing else, this will filter runing plays Manny's way, giving him the opportunity to make a lot of plays. Early last year, Manny showed an ability to get past blocking tight ends and penetrate the backfield. If he can pick up where he left off, he'll be making plays on runningbacks all day.

Reason 2: distractions

Related to reason 1, if you're the opposing offensive coordinator and there's one guy you not worried about picking up on a blitz, who's it gonna be? Obviously, a team has to account for Willis and Spikes, but the inside backers in the 3-4 are less likely to blitz than the outside backers. So for practical purposes, the real question for pass protection schemes is whether to focus on Justin Smith or Manny. I think Smith warrants more attention at this point in his career. As a result, I think Lawson will have some free shots at quarterbacks this year, particularly considering the right tackle situations in the NFC West.

Reason 3: incubation theory

Conventional wisdom suggests certain positions require a year or two of experience in order to develop. In essence, they have to sit on an NFL sideline each Sunday for a season or two before they're done incubating. The most common example is the wide receiver position, where there's a theory that a player requires two years of NFL experience before he will make any contribution (a theory I've disputed ad nauseum elsewhere). Regardless of the validity of this theory, many pass rushers do take time to develop. Here are a few 3-4 outside linebackers who serve as examples ...

Joey Porter: 2 sacks his first year, 10.5 sacks his second year
Willie McGinest: 4.5 sacks his first year, 11 sacks his second year
Greg Ellis: 3 sacks his first year, 12.5 sacks last year
Mike Vrabel: never totaled more than 3 sacks in his first five years, recorded 12.5 last year

Sure, there are freaks like Merriman and Ware who were productive as rookies, but that's just the exception that proves the rule (whatever that means). Point is, Manny could prove a pass rusher yet.

In his first year, Manny lined up next to guys like Derek Smith, Brandon Moore, and Jeff Ulbrichshithouse. These guys didn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of offensive coordinators. Last year, some were calling Manny a disappointment. After a strong showing in the pre-season and the first two regular season games, he changed some minds. This year's a different story. With a stronger supporting cast, I think Manny's going to have a banner year in '08.

Treating blackout

2008-08-06T09:21:00.000-07:00

Don't be surprised if you turn on your TV on Friday night expecting to see the 49ers-Raiders game and instead find yourself watching Xena, Princess Warrior (now in syndication!). The game is being blacked out, per NFL policy. Most Bay Area outlets are playing a tape delay at 10 p.m. If you live in the Bay Area and want to see when and where the game will be carried, here's a link to AOL's television listings guide.

It really pisses me off when a game is blacked out. For the uninitiated, the NFL requires local television to blackout any game that doesn't sell out within 72 hours of game time. Often times, the local TV station that would air the game will buy the remaining tickets themselves, allowing them to carry the game in spite of the empty seats. Other times, the team's owner himself will purchase the remaining tickets, just to keep the game on for the local fans. Dr. J., for all his shortcomings, has done this in the past. Al Davis, not so much.

In an era of tax dollar-funded stadiums, I think owners owe it to the cities in which they play to provide tickets that are affordable to the average citizen. Especially when you consider the evidence that these stadiums do not "pay back" the city in revenue, as some would argue. But if they won't provide reasonably-priced tickets, at least let the average folks watch the fucking game on TV. Denying fans not only hurts league-wide revenues, it hurts the team's local fan base in the long-run.

For an anecdotal explanation of how the blackout policy works, click here. For an interesting attempt to explain the rule, including some of the rule's history (in the comments) click here. For any reader who's interested in the issue of public money in sports from an economist's perspective, get a used copy of Sports, Jobs & Taxes, by Roger Noll from Stanford and Andrew Zimbalist from Smith College. This book was forced upon me as a part of my education in economics and I liked it so much I read it twice.

Smokin that Raiderjuana

2008-08-05T13:06:00.000-07:00

This weekend, the 49ers are playing the Raiders in what some media outposts are feebly trying to pass off as a Bay Area rivalry. Truth is, there's no rivalry. For the most part, I think 9ers fans have mixed feelings of love and fear for the Raiders. Meanwhile, Raiders fans ... well, I would never attempt to guess what goes on in the heads of Raiders fans.

I think Raiders fans are totally awesome. I also think they're out of their fucking minds.

Living in the Bay Area, I meet these people every day. I'll never forget the time I went to the grocery store to buy a tri-tip and the meat guy was wearing a Raiders hat. He said "You buying this for a bar-b-que to watch the Raiders game?" "No," I said, "they have a bye this weekend." "Where you from?" he asked. "I'm from the city. You?" "I'm from Raiders," he said. I might be confused by this whole interaction had I not been so familiar with Raiders doctrine. You see, a Raiders fan feels completely free to use the word "Raiders" in any sentence. That's how much they love the Raiders. When judging fanmanship, you really have to respect that.

Then there are fans like "raiderjoe" a regular contributor to the Football Outsiders comment section (and probably countless other blogs) who has developed something of a cult following with the blog's readers for the blind loyalty and mind boggling incoherence of his comments. Here are some of his recent highlights.

McFadden will be great player for Raiders. Possibly bets running back since Bo Jackson. Raiders rush offense 6th last year, probably be 1 or 2 in 2008. especially with passing attack of Russell to keep defense s honest.
- Raiderjoe — 5/20/2008

Poster sounds insance. No way are Chargers going to dominate divisons ... Keep dreamign about Chargers cuase it sure as not going to happen in real life.
- Raiderjoe — 4/8/2008

Denver is not only threat to SD. Oakland as big as threat as Denbver, but even bigger.
- Raiderjoe — 2/16/2008

With fans like this guy, how can anyone hate the Raiders?

And then there's this, which just brings tears of joy to my eye every time I watch it.

I'm rooting for the Raiders this season. I think DMC is going to be a bad ass in his rookie season. With guys like Derrick Burgess and Nnamdi Awsom-O 4000, that defense is going to be tough to beat. So I'm saving all my hatred for the 49ers real rivals.

Hot, steaming pile of comments (amended)

2008-08-03T11:54:00.000-07:00

I'm not the only one who is annoyed by Tim Kawakami's blog. There's a small legion of sports fans in the Bay Area who cringe every time they read one of TK's bolder-than-thou headlines. But some TK haters are getting a little out of hand.

Here's how the latest round shenanigans started. The word "owner" appeared in the 9ers 2008 media guide next to Jed York's name. The implication is Jed's officially become part of the organization's ownership. In today's post on Talking Points, Kawakami made love to himself for claiming Jed was essentially the team's owner last winter.

Anyway, there's nothing special about the post. Kawakami has dedicated the site to stroking his ego and readers can hear all about how smart he is any day of the week. This particular post is notable because of what you find in the comments. There's a healthy tradition of readers shredding TK in response to his inflammatory editorials. Sometimes, I feel like the commentors read my mind.

Find more videos like this on www.truveo.com.

But the comments in TK's blog have eroded to kindergarten name calling. Rather than reacting to the post, the readers react to TK. What's the point?

There are two reasons I don't post reader comments on this blog - 1) I don't have any readers, and 2) the law of nature that states all threads of comments must descend into retarded fuckery. Every once in a while, the comments of a blog will add to the blog. The commentors might make a funny jab or offer an insightful twist on the post. Inevitably, a cancerous dip shit jumps in and has to contradict everything everybody says. This is an absolute inevitability. There can be no exceptions. And once the cancer arrives, he will never go away. No matter how flawed his arguments, he refuses to die. He's like Jason, or Gavin Newsom. He keeps coming back, even though he's obviously worn out his welcome.

Here in Nineragua, we repress dissent with prior restraint. Sure, it inhibits the free flow if ideas, but isn't that the beauty of the internet? Infinite free real estate for everybody to babble all over. My advice to TK - come to the dark side. Turn off comments, you'll like it.

Daily pre-season prediction

2008-07-26T12:31:00.000-07:00

Daily pre-season prediction #3: Ashley Lelie gets cut

Injured, again. I'm not inclined to recycle jokes, but Mike Nolan is about as tolerant of injuries as Lou Dobbs is of immigrants. Making matters worse for Lelie, this training camp has some stiff competition at the receiver position. If Lelie misses time this pre-season with another injury, he's done.

As Mike Sando, the journalist who never sleeps, reports, the 49ers under Nolan have kept either six or seven receivers. Believe it or not, the Rams under Martz only kept five. With 1) Bruce, 2) Johnson, 3) Battle, 4) Hill, and 5) Morgan, that leaves one roster spot remaining AT MOST. In a Niners Nation poll last May, readers had Lilie as the 4th receiver. If that poll were conducted again today, I suspect the fans would send Lelie packing.

Maiocco's post from this morning

2008-07-25T09:13:00.001-07:00

Anyone who reads 49ers blogs reads Matt Maiocco's Instant 49ers. In fact, most readers probably start there. In spite of the fact that anyone reading this post has already read Maiocco's post from this morning, I just want to encourage you to read it again. Read it a couple times. It's that good.

My only contribution is this. It's been suggested that Smith will start one of the first two pre-season games and Hill will start the other. If that happens, then the quarterback who doesn't start each of those games will come in some time around the second quarter. When the second string quarterback comes in, he'll be playing against the other team's second string defense. Therefore, he will probably come away looking better than the quarterback who started the game.

But there's more, and this part's important. If Smith starts the first pre-season game against the Raiders, and I think he will, he'll go against a top-tier pass defense with Nnamdi Awsom-O 4000 (audio in link) and DeAngelo Hall. Those guys are bad asses. It's not going to be easy for any quarterback to look good against that defense. The Raiders' second stingers, Stanford Routt and John Bowie, aren't bad, but they're beatable. Hill will probably look dominant against these guys, causing the media and the fans to go monkeyshit crazy. Smith can't afford to let this happen. For the sake of his own confidence and the team's confidence in him, Smith needs to come out strong against the Raiders.

So here's my corollary to the scenario Maiocco posted this morning: IF Smith looks weak against the Raiders, and I think he probably will, and IF Hill comes in and looks great, and again, I think he probably will, then the tone will be set. The only way we don't have a quarterback controversy going into the season is if Smith comes out hot and Hill does not.

Daily pre-season prediction

2008-07-21T08:54:00.001-07:00

Daily pre-season prediction #2: Expect more "Big Nickel"

This deserves a little explanation. First, some background on the Big Nickel. The standard Nickel defense modifies a 4-3 to adjust for passing situations in three ways. The first modification is use of five defensive backs. The fifth back is usually a cornerback who has enough size to challenge a running play. Second, the package uses two linebackers, the middle backer and the strongside backer from the 4-3. The third modification is to the down lineman. The formation uses more pass rushing personnel on the line than would the 4-3. Think Justin Tuck playing defensive tackle. Kevin Lynch discussed the formation in several posts on the Niner Insider.

The 9ers tried a standard Nickel in '06 and had some success. In '07, they modified the standard Nickel by using four big down lineman (BY, Franklin, Sopoaga, and Douglas) and the two middle linebackers from the base 3-4, Willis and Derek Smith. Theoretically, this improved on the standard Nickel by adding size to the line and a bigger backer to stop the run. In short, it was a big Nickel. Seattle destroyed it. Later in the season, they modified the Big Nickel in two ways. First, they replaced one of the down lineman with an outside backer (Parys Haralson) who lined up in a 3-point stance. They also replaced Smith with Jeff Ulbrichshithouse. This was Big Nickel 2.0 and it was faster and more successful.

Now consider the team's offseason moves. Their biggest free agent acquisition was a big d-end who doesn't fit a traditional 3-4. They drafted another lineman who's too small to play a traditional 3-4 tackle and a corner with size and tackling ability, also known as a nickel back. They let Derek Smith go and haven't done much to replace him. These moves fit the Big Nickel perfectly.

Everyone knows the NFL is moving toward a more spread offense. More accurately, everyone wants to look like the Patriots did last year. (Football Outsiders recently pointed out that there is no movement toward a spread offense, just more use of the shotgun with 3+ receiver sets, but whatever.) The logical reaction is a defense that can shut down a high-octane passing offense without sacrificing the ability to stop the run. I foresee a lot more use of the Nickel defense all over the league this year. The 9ers' Big Nickel is nice upgrade to that model and should get a lot of use this year.

Daily pre-season prediction

2008-07-19T11:59:00.000-07:00

Prediction #1: Rachal unseats Baas in the pre-season

First he was at Right Guard, then he was at Right Tackle, now he's apparently back at Right Guard. Now that the shuffling seems to be over and done with, I see Rachal settling in at the Guard spot and not letting go. As Maiocco the Magnificent hinted in his post on the day the team signed Chilo Rachal, he's a contender for the starting job already. Barrows goes a step further, saying the competition at this point is between Rachal and Tony Wragge.

Why do I think Rachal takes the spot? Two reasons. First, Baas is injured. McNolan is about as sympathetic to injured players as Lou Dobbs is to immigrants. And while reports indicate Baas is recovering smoothly, his is not a minor injury. This injury ended Patrick Kearney's '06 season and Bertrand Berry's '07 season. Don't expect Baas to be game-ready until the pre-season is over.

Second, Rachal has a mean streak that Baas lacks. This, from Maiocco's mini-update on OTAs:

There was a report on Sirius NFL Radio that 49ers rookie guard Chilo Rachal tussled with outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain during Friday's practice, according to several people who heard the show. Rachal reportdely threw Banta-Cain around like a rag doll.

I just can't see that happening with Baas - he's too low key.

So there you have it, daily prediction #1. Expect daily pre-season prediction #2 in a couple weeks.

Quaterbacking debate

2008-07-11T11:30:00.000-07:00

So by now, everyone has seen Nolan's post-war plan for selecting a Quarterback. Essentially, he's saying that the deadline for the decision is the third pre-season game. This goes against earlier statements indicating the team wants to go into training camp with a starter. Barrows gave that statement a little flack this morning, and reasonably so. But is there genius lurking behind the delay?

Here's why Nolan's doing the right thing in waiting to name a starter. As anyone who's seen these two quarterbacks play can tell you, Alex Smith looks good on paper and in practice; Shaun Hill doesn't. Hill looks good in games; Smith doesn't (usually). If the decision to name a starter were made based solely on OTAs and training camp, the nod would obviously go to Smith. In six years in the NFL, Hill never distinguished himself in practice. In fact, he was destined for a career as a 3rd stringer until he had the opportunity to start last year. Only after those performances was he in the running for the permanent starting job. So the only way the team can truly evaluate Smith v. Hill is by considering game situations. According to Maiocco,

Nolan intimated that Smith and Hill will start one game apiece before the third practice game.

If the team is actually giving Hill a shot to start, that's the only reasonable thing to do.

The heartbreaking work of a really smart blogger

2008-07-02T08:45:00.000-07:00

I was devastated when I read yesterday that the 49ers Huddle blog at the website of the San Jose Mercury News is being dismantled. Over the last three years, Vince Chhabria had built the blog into a reliably solid read. He and Erik Larson, who joined the blog as a co-writer last year, will be missed.

Here's why I'm so bummed this blog is defunct - 49ers Huddle was unlike anything else on the net. For one thing, Chhabria is a really smart fan. His blog didn't have to bother with scatalogical humor (like I do) to make a piece worth reading. He also didn't bother with dull topics or doltish imagination land nonsense. He found interesting issues and offered thought-provoking commentary in every piece. While other bloggers are plenty bright, Chhabria was just a cut above. What's more, Chhabria was an unapologetic fan of the team. Most of the blogs worth reading are written by journalists. These are good sources of news, but when a blog is beholden to journalistic standards there's a limit to the commentary it can offer. Chhabria didn't bother with news clips, just commentary. In my mind, that's what blogs are for.

Chhabria's gone the way of most adults. He's put aside a bright future as a blogger for his career and family. Whatever, Vince. I'm going back to bed to hug my knees and shake.

Madden ratings

2008-07-01T08:33:00.000-07:00

The Madden '09 ratings for the 49ers were published on IGN earlier in the week (I think it was this week). Here are some quick observations.

The happiest player on the team is DeShaun Foster with a "Morale" rating of 99. He's one point away from achieving total consciousness, which is nice.
At the other end of the happiness scale, Ashlie Lelie is a sad 60. Maybe they figure he misses Trent Dilfer. Two other players with a low morale are Michael Robinson and Manny Lawson. Uhhh, if those guys have low morale, Michael Strahan is borderline suicidal.
Joe Nedney is apparently the most injury-prone player on the team with an "Injury" rating of 65 and a "Toughness" rating of 60. Nedney had this to say in response, "Fuck that. I am six feet, five inches of brick shit house. If Madden had a 'Brick Shit House' rating, I would be the first player with a rating over 100." Seriously, Nedney's probably the biggest kicker ever and he's never been injured. I haven't checked any other kickers, but their Toughness ratings better be in the teens.
Frank Gore leads the team with a rating of 92 in "Trucking." Whatever that means, it sounds right.
Andy Lee will not be denied. He joins Patrick Willis at the top of the "Overall" ratings. Not to mention, he is one of the top 50 players in the game. I think matching Pittsburgh's offer last offseason was one of the smartest moves McNolan's made.
Willis also scores a rating of 98 in "Pursuit." It's pretty obvious that this is the result of the tackle in the Cardinals game. That was a great play, no doubt. More importantly, it's a play that not many other Middle Linebackers in the NFL could make. Certainly not Urlacher or Ray Lewis. But let's face it, if Willis doesn't tackle Morey, Michael Lewis does. There are other plays Willis made that, in isolation, were more impressive to me. No one jars the ball lose from Hines Ward like Willis did. He made Adrian Peterson look like a joke after Peterson destroyed some the best defenses in the game. But the Morey play is the one people remember.
Jason Hill looks pretty damn good. He's at or near the top of the receiver group in "Speed," "Acceleration," "Elusiveness," "Jumping," "Juke Move," and "Spectacular Catch."
Alex Smith and Shaun Hill are essentially the same. No surprise here.

Maybe I'll take a look at the division opponents in a later post. I'm curious to see how they rate Julius Jones and Seattle's O-Line.

The problem with losing a pass rusher

2008-06-28T16:35:00.000-07:00

Did anyone notice last year that the pass rush looked really bad? In my memory, the low point was actually a game the team won. In week 12 against the Cardinals, Kurt Warner, playing in a wheel chair, threw for almost 500 yards. Take a look at the game clips - Warner drops back, sees his number one option is covered, remembers he forgot to send his pastor a thanksgiving card, takes a shower, shaves, sees his number 1 option is still covered, re-grows a beard a la Charlie from P.O.5, and throws a 50-yard touchdown.

As any casual observer of the füsball knows, teams can't win without pressuring the quarterback. Teams that get sacks win, while teams that don't get sacks lose. There's evidence suggesting that losing even one pass rusher from your roster is enough to send a defense from better-than-average to worse-than-average. And here's the kicker - when teams that lose a pass rusher try to replace that pass rusher via free agency or a trade, they still decline. Schatzy from Football Outsiders makes the case:

Does adding a top pass-rusher help as much as losing a top pass-rusher hurts? No, not even close. In fact, top pass-rushers switching teams have an effect roughly opposite that of top offensive linemen switching teams: Offensive linemen tend to have a bigger impact on their new teams, while top pass-rushers tend to have a bigger impact on the teams that lose them.

I mention all this just to show that a team needs a pass rush to be successful in the NFL.

As I stated in the opening, it seemed to me like the 2007 49ers couldn't sack groceries. Unfortunately, it appears I was right. According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers D-Line ranked 25th in adjusted sacks (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance). The defense overall ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass. What did they do this offseason to improve their pass rush? Watched their leading pass rusher retire and replaced him with a guy who piled up all of two sacks last year (and who bears a remarkable resemblance to this guy). This doesn't inspire much optimism.

10 reasons 49ers fans can and should hate the Cowboys

2008-06-16T14:39:00.001-07:00

You know what I hate more than the Cowboys? Nothing. A couple days ago, NFL.com held a debate over the greatest playoff rivalries in the game. All the debaters agreed 49ers-Cowboys is a top five rivalry. Jeffri Chadiha at ESPN even claimed,

[The mid-nineties] was the last time we saw two legitimate powerhouses tussling on an annual basis.

Still, I finished these articles feeling they failed to appreciate how much loathing there is between these two franchises. In that vein, here is a thorough list of all the reasons the 49ers fans can and should - nay, MUST - hate the Cowboys.

1970 - After decades of mediocrity, Dick Nolan finally leads the 49ers to the post-season. Pissing on our parade for the first time, the Cowboys knock the 49ers out of the playoffs.
1971 - For the second year in a row, the Cowboys knock the 49ers out of the playoffs.
1972 - Bench warmer Roger Staubach comes into the NFC Championship game off the pine, throws two touchdown passes in the last two minutes of the game, and ... the Cowboys knock the 49ers out of the playoffs.
1981 - The 49ers wipe the floor with the Cowboys 45-14 early in the season, but the Cowboys make it to the NFC Championship game nonetheless. In that game, Joe Montana leads an 89 yard drive, ending with Dwight Clark's catch over Everson "Posterized-On-My" Walls in the most glorious play in the history of anything on this or any other world. (Why is this a reason to hate the Cowboys? Because fuck the Cowboys, that's why.)
1992 - After winning fourteen regular season games, the heavily favored 49ers blow it in the NFC Championship game when Bucky Fucking Dent makes the only play in his life that ever mattered, and ... the Cowboys knock the 49ers out of the playoffs.
1993 - Hair Crimes Johnson is so drunk at a pre-NFC Championship game press conference that he predicts the Cowboys will win. George Seifert is so drunk during the game that the Cowboys do win, and ... the Cowboys knock the 49ers out of the playoffs.
1995 - After helping the 49ers win the Super Bowl the prior year, Deion Sanders pulls an Anakin Skywalker and signs with the Cowboys, who he promptly helps win a Super Bowl.
Ms. Tarrell Owens.
2005 - Mike Nolan's first season the Cowboys score fifteen points in the 4th Quarter to win by three.
2008 - While the 49ers have snowball's chance in hell of making it to the playoffs this year, they will play the Cowboys in a regular season game for the first time since '05. Afterwards, we'll all have one more reason to hate the Cowboys.

Is this the best rivalry in football? Probably not, and definitely not at this moment. Are the Cowboys the 49ers' biggest rival? Maybe. Regardless, for all the playoffs the Cowboys have knocked the 49ers out of over the last 40 years, we really owe them a big debt of fuckyouitude.

Jedi Jed

2008-06-07T11:23:00.001-07:00

Earlier this week, several sources reported Keena Turner was promoted from co-host of the 49ers GMC Post-Game Wrap-Up & Apology Show to 49ers VP of Keeping Current Players in United Way Commercials and Former Players Off the Welfare. The news was announced in an e-mail distributed to the press from Jed York, who forgot to CC me, but whatever. You'd think this information would come from a press liaison. But the fact that it came from Jed got me thinking. It's well-documented that Jed is being primed to take over the organization when his parents lose interest. Apparently, he's being primed to deal with the media as well.

This isn't the first time Jed has been in front of the mic for the 9ers. On draft day, he gave a very candid interview on KNBR at team headquarters. I, for one, was impressed with Jed. He fielded questions about the team's draft strategy, his uncle Eddie, and the team in general. In doing so, he sounded like a true football fan. In 2006, Jed sent a letter to friends (again, forgetting to CC me) describing the decision to move the team to Santa Clara. The letter, which eventually became public, ended with the following.

I can promise you I will do everything I can to make the 49ers the best team in professional sports. The 49ers will have a new stadium in the Bay Area soon. We will also win a lot of football games and start competing for the Super Bowl.

Nancy Gay, who published the letter, had this to say about Jed.

He is very passionate about the team and the stadium project. He is a smart young guy, but doesn't pretend he knows everything. He is involved in every aspect of the stadium construction and planning, more than many people think. Probably more than many San Francisco politicians are comfortable with.

Jed building a public image is no small thing. His father, Dr. J, is an ogre with the media and the fans. That's likely part of the reason the organization has Mike Nolan playing mouthpiece for everything the organization does. Jed, on the other hand, seems to be taking a page from uncle Eddie's book and warming up to the media. Also like Eddie, and unlike John, Jed is taking pains to build himself an image as a fan first, businessman second.

More comparisons to Eddie will inevitably follow as the Jed era draws near. But that won't happen any time soon. Jed is still in his 20s. Still, it's heartening to think that someday we'll have a fan in the owner's box again.

49ers receivers lead league in career yards ...

2008-06-04T11:10:00.001-07:00

... accumulated for other teams.

That's right, after browsing the stacks at NFL.com, I found that the trio of Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, and Ashley Lelie combine for more career receiving yards while playing for teams other than their current teams than any other receiver group in the NFL. By a lot.

49ers - 20,221
Cowboys - 16,021
Buccaneers - 15,265

Interpret this as you will. One thing's for sure - Isaac Bruce is old. But Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway, who contributed to the runners up, have been around for a while too and they are still contributing.

I'm f'ing huge in Germany

2008-06-03T13:01:00.001-07:00

The outpouring of personal interest stories about J.T. O'Sullivan recently is giving me cramps. In yesterday's Merc, even Dan Brown got in the act. Brown's is probably the best written article on the subject. It's definitely the most well-researched. But in some ways, it's also the most bothersome. It's bothersome because it's a huge waste of everybody's time.

When he's not haunting Ellen Page, O'Sullivan is employed as a third-string Quarterback by every team in the NFL.

Third-string. He's not taking reps with the first team, he's not taking reps with the second team. Third-string. He's gone from backing up the guy who backed up Jon Kitna to backing up the guy who backs up Alex Smith. Is that really all that newsworthy? At this point, I'd rather read about the guy who does the 49ers laundry because he has just about as good a chance as O'Sullivan as getting on the field for the opener.

Some of the writers went monkeyshit crazy when Nolan said O'Sullivan was in the running for the starting spot. But read what Nolan has actually been saying. Here's Nolan on KNBR (audio link) last week:

These guys [Smith and Hill] are competing for this job because both of them, for different reasons, have the ability to score points and lead this team ... O’Sullivan will compete for the job, not as much as Alex and Shaun, early on at least.

So O'Sullivan won't compete early, but he will get a chance later? One of the most frequent arguments for giving O'Sullivan a shot is his familiarity with the Mike Martz play book. That is something that will take Smith and Hill time to digest. But with each day of practice, Smith and Hill grow more familiar with the offense and O'Sullivan's advantage dissipates. So O'Sullivan's time to compete is EARLIER, not later.

So how, exactly, is O'Sullivan supposed to supplant both Smith and Hill when O'Sullivan is 1) not competing with Smith and Hill early on and 2) when he does get reps, he's pitching to the third string? Answer: he's not. He's there in case the two guys in front of him get hurt.

So how about some stories on more interesting members of the team?

Related reading:

Barrows keeps a level head on O'Sullivan ... consistently.
So does Kawakami.
Scott Ostler says O'Sullivan might be the front runner.
Mark Maske makes the familiar-with-the-system argument. (The Washington Post has a sports writer? And he writes up the 9ers?)

Die Porkchop, Die

2008-06-02T13:59:00.000-07:00

Laywer: Well, what about that tattoo on your chest? Doesn't it say Die Porkchop, Die?
Sideshow Nineraguan: No, that's German for "The Porkchop, The."
Parole Judge: No one who speaks German can be an evil man! Parole Granted!

Bad news is good news. Especially when it involves injuries to Seattle's O-Line. Sando reports the Seahawks are shuffling already and it's the first day of OTAs.

Just met Chilo Rachal

2008-06-01T12:29:00.000-07:00

Well, "met" is a bit of an exaggeration. He was standing outside a store on Market St and I stopped to gush like a 9-year-old girl at a Miley Cyrus ass kissing contest. Funny thing was, he seemed really flattered, like he didn't expect people to recognize him. Hey Chilo, you're 6' 5" and 315 lbs., people are going to notice you.

I'm not a journalist, I'm a fan. So when I meet players, I freak out a little bit. Inevitably, I end up rooting for players I've met for no rational reason. Chilo's no exception. If you read this blog, expect to hear me push the guy all year. Starting now.

I like Jonas Jennings. I think the success the offense had in '06 was directly attributable to Jennings and Allen on the left side of the line. What's more, a lot of the guys on the team talk about Jennings when they talk about the team leaders. That said, if Jonas Jennings starts every game this season, I will eat my hat. Now that Chilo's bumped out to back up Jennings at Right Tackle, Chilo's virtually guaranteed some starts. I look forward to seeing what he can do.

If you withhold his pay, maybe he'll stay sober

2008-05-31T17:25:00.000-07:00

Jerry McDonald, one of the Bay Area sports writers worth reading, posted a compelling argument that the Raiders should take a chance on recently released Odell Thurman. As you may have noticed in recent decades Jerry, the Raiders will take a chance on anybody. In this case, McDonald's argument is that, while Thurman is a risky addition, he's so cheap and so talented that he's a risk worth taking.

He's right. For those unfamiliar with Thurman, he came into the league in the same 2005 draft that gave us Alex Smith and Frank Gore. He's only 25-years-old and he's been suspended for the last two seasons, so he's relatively fresh. Well, fresh might be an overstatement. Rather, he has both knees intact. His rookie year, he compiled 98 tackles and 5 picks. Then he got suspended for drugs. Then he got suspended some more. He's missed all of the last two seasons. What can you say? Some men are passionate about their hobbies.

McDonald claims Thurman was arguably better in his rookie season than Shawn Merriman, who was selected as the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Here's the kicker - since he has been suspended the last two years, he's still under his rookie contract. In '08 and '09, he'll earn an average salary under $580K. That's peanuts! The 9ers are paying more than that for Dontarrious "Excels-At-Special-Teams" Thomas.

It's clear enough that McCloughan and Nolan are fairly risk averse when it comes to character problems, but from what I can tell, this guy just smokes weed.* Ray Lewis had a guy killed. Nolan seemed alright with that. With the open auditions the 49ers are currently holding for Ted Middle Linebacker, there's really no reason not to give Thuman a shot.

*Note: The NFL doesn't actually report what substance a suspended player has abused, so I have no idea what Thurman's been smoking.

Welcome to Nineragua

2008-05-31T11:43:00.000-07:00

In 1979, Marxist revolutionaries overthrew the corrupt Nicaraguan government. That same year, the San Francisco 49ers drafted a quarterback from Notre Dame named Joe Montana. Coincidence? Yes.

2008 training camp opens in a matter of weeks and we's gonna be there. Maybe. Who does a guy have to kidnap to get a press pass around here?

So check back early and often for our take on last year's third winningest team in the NFC West.